No. of Recommendations: 36
A lot of people don't look at anything but the year-on-year inflation rate.
But when the rate itself is changing a lot, shorter intervals can be interesting.
Six months ago, the annualized rates of inflation looking back 12,9,6,and 3 months were
8.6% 9.1% 10.3% 12.1%
In other words, both high and accelerating.
(rates are annualized linearly, not with compounding)
The latest figures give the following annualized rates of inflation over 12, 9, 6, and 3 months:
7.1% 6.6% 3.7% 2.1%
So, the year-on-year 7.1% figure isn't really the news.
The rates are now lowish and have been falling fast. That isn't getting a lot of press.
I imagine this change is mostly due to lower oil prices, with a secondary effect from the US dollar being much stronger than it was at the start of the year.
But maybe (?) some part of it is that the spike inflation will have been transitory after all.
If only because the interest rate hikes might have worked, or started working.
It would probably be worth seeing a deeper metric like the fraction of goods and services experiencing 3-month or 6-month inflation over 4%, or something like that.
That would give you an idea about the degree to which the core inflation effect was broad and therefore possibly building its own new normal.
If that diffusion index were falling, it would be a strong sign that the worst is past.
Is there a practical upshot?
The speculation would be that perhaps policy rates might therefore not need to rise to the moon.
Or might even (whisper it softly) be falling at some point in the not-too-distant future.
For example, if one were buying calls for any reason, maybe consider NOT following the general rule of going always with the longest dated ones available.
The time premium for the period Jan 2024 through Jan 2025 (1-2 years from now) might be lower when the time gets closer.
Such is the speculation.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 4
Great to have you back Jim. Some on this board might know 'wabuffo' (Bill), a longtime poster on several Berkshire boards. Bill is mostly active on twitter these days and he has been covering this disinflation theme very accurately for quite a while. He is also a particularly clear thinker on how the monetary plumbing actually works - which is somewhat different from the common misconception that the FED has much power over money supply, inflation, etc...
https://twitter.com/wabuffoBonus, he is an expert at reverse engineering the undisclosed foreign stock holdings that Charlie buys for Daily Journal.
No. of Recommendations: 1
But maybe (?) some part of it is that the spike inflation will have been transitory after all.
I very much think so. Stimulus checks are a thing of the past, the supply chains are getting fixed and energy prices have peaked for now. Inflation should come down considerably.
No. of Recommendations: 0
If year-over-year inflation comes down to 2% but remains 20% higher than 2020, would that be acceptable to the FED and the public? Some companies earnings would also take a hit comparing to 2020.
