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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal ✶☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: Portfolio123
Date: 02/16/26 1:00 PM
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lizgdal wrote: "For comparison between GTR1 and P123, I plan on looking at the correlation of monthly excess returns (monthly return minus benchmark return). I will also compare CAGR across multiple screens. I expect P123 and GTR1 to match close enough for my purposes."

TGMark wrote: "I am interested to see what you find. For screens that are picking stocks, I tend to want to see pretty good agreement in which tickers are picked."


I've finished my testing, and will post details in a separate thread (maybe in about a week). P123 and GTR1 match closely enough for my purposes. I mostly avoid nano caps (market cap < $50 million), and so did not do much testing on those. I found some implausible returns, but those are mostly avoided with the usual liquidity criteria (e.g. Price above 1).

The tickers are unlikely to match. I would expect about 50% agreement on average, with a range from 0% to 100% agreement. Even something as simple as Market Cap is difficult to match.

=== links ===
Important Update: Transition to FactSet Market Cap, Feb 6, 2026
community.portfolio123.com - Important update transition to factset market cap

Author: borisnand
Subject: Comparing GTR1 picks and SI Rankings
Date: 6/1/2016
"Overall, there is good agreement between the Rankings and GTR1, with 56% Jaccard index on average."
Jaccard index = (number of picks common to both lists) / (number of picks in combined list)
or put another way:
Jaccard index = size of the intersection divided by the size of the union of the sample sets
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=32264724

Author: borisnand
Subject: Comparing GTR1 results and Weekly Trade Ledgers
Date: 6/1/2016
       screen         CAGR_L  CAGR_G  GSD  Jaccard
Fried_500 17% 14 31 100%
OptiMan 7% 5 28 100%
Steady_Growth 3% 1 21 100%
Bob 15% 13 25 96%
P/SLove_You 11% 12 27 92%
PIH_Naked 11% 12 32 92%
CANSLIM-26 5% 4 21 90%
Gentle_Screamers 21% 22 26 82%
GS_Mungo 15% 9 22 82%
GS_Mungo_Voom 14% 8 22 82%
Microcap_Momentum 31% 17 43 79%
POG 8% 7 37 79%
Shrinkage 9% 11 26 79%
Turnarounds 4% 6 36 79%
Small_Value 12% 8 32 76%
FCF-26 13% 6 30 72%
Quality_Earnings 12% 10 32 72%
Melange 5% 10 36 67%
Net-Nets_Grahamified 22% 21 30 64%
POI 19% 18 37 61%
Silver_Parachute 11% 13 26 61%
Value_at_the_Top 12% 12 19 61%
ARS 7% 8 24 56%
GSX 13% 15 23 47%
GSX2 13% 19 24 43%
Zweig-26 1% -4 20 43%
S&P_Peg 3% 4 29 19%
Z26saTA -1% -2 22 18%
Up5X3 29% 23 32 15%
Low_Mult 21% 27 24 9%
78RPM 12% 14 34 4%
High_Relative_Value 25% 30 21 4%
Up_5% 12% 17 33 4%
WK_Voom 17% 20 26 0%
average 13% 12 28 60%

https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=32264753

Author: rrjjgg
Subject: Re: GTR1 verification needed
Date: 3/19/2017
"I`ll just assume that [Microcap_Momentum] is too chaotic to be easily backtested and should be avoided."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=32642718
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Members reply directly to lizgdal here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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