Oil inventories are being held up by the exhaustion of strategic reserves...once those go, the price per barrel will zoom up to $150. At that point Trump has to pretty much fold:

One might assume so. However, Trump has made a great display of being indifferent to the impact of higher oil prices. Or at least cultivating the appearance of being indifferent.

He's also indicated he believes that Iran is desperate to reach a deal. It doesn't seem to affect his position (at least the one he asserts in public) that many of the things that were expected to force Iran to cut a deal with us haven't yet worked. Killing their leadership didn't cause them to fold. Blowing up their navy and airforce and some (but only some) of their missile capacity didn't get us what we wanted. The blockade and the ostensible "$500 million per day" losses don't seem to have done anything yet. And obviously Iran's pipelines and wells didn't start to "explode" in early May, as Trump had previously stated they would.

Plus...well, Trump doesn't want to fold and hates admitting defeat. It's anathema to his public image, his political identity, everything about him. He needs for this to have been a success. If it ends up being a failure - and a failure due to something that everyone knew Iran had the power to do - then that's going to be a very bitter pill to swallow.

If he's decided that the midterms are already lost - or that he doesn't care - then he might just stay the course rather than admit defeat. To say nothing of Steve's theory that he wants oil prices to zoom above $150.