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The three bear catchers remained in BULL mode from January 5th to March 6th. The NH/NL turned to BEAR on March 9th. The other two Bear Catchers remain in BULL mode.

Date      Signal  SMA   NH/NL  DBE
20260309  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20260105  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20251226  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20251128  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20251031  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250813  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250801  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250626  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250617  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250604  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250508  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250409  4       Bear  Bear   Bull
20250207  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250205  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250131  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250130  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250129  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250124  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250108  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250103  7       Bull  Bull   Bull

I believe the S&P has closed below the 200 DMA.

The BCC signal [SMADiff] is a momentum metric. SPY is higher than a year ago, and so [SMADiff] is Bullish. The math is based on simple moving averages, but reduces to the slope of the price curve (with the endpoints smoothed over 10 days).

https://gtr1.net/2013/?~altSMADiff26:h1::SMADiff:g...

The RRS slope could be used. [SMADiff] was last Bearish between 20250410 and 20250508. The RRS slope was last negative between 20220503 and 20230308. Since 19251231, the signals [SMADiff] and [SlopeRRS] agreed 93% of the time. Both were Bearish about 30% of the time. Count of days:

                SlopeRRS  SlopeRRS
                 is <=0    is > 0
SMADiff             0         1     total
is <=0     0      6771      823     7594
is > 0     1      965       16607   17572
         total    7736      17430   25166

A possible alternative to RRS is based on dividing the time period into thirds, and calculating the slope based on the first and last third. For example, with 210 days:

AltSlopeRRS210 = (sma(0,70) - sma(140,70)) / sma(140,70)


=== math ===

SMA0 = sum(P0 to P199) / 200
SMA10 = sum(P10 to P209) / 200

SMADiff = SMA0 - SMA10
200*SMADiff = sum(P0 to P199) - sum(P10 to P209)
200*SMADiff = sum(P0 to P9) - sum(P200 to P209)

This is equivalent to:
AltSMAD = (sma(0,10) - sma(200,10)) / 20


=== SMADiff definition ===

Create [SMADiff]: [Simple Moving Avg of closing g-prices over 200 days; lag=0 days] - [Simple Moving Avg of closing g-prices over 200 days; lag=10 days]

step0: [SMADiff] > 0

"The Simple Moving Average (SMA) Slope identifies whether the intermediate trend of the market is up or down.
1) Take the 40 week moving average (200 day) of the S&P 500
A.) later optimized by Zeelotes to 180 days
2) If this week's figure is better than that of 2 weeks ago, then buy (or hold, if in already).
A.) later optimized by Zeelotes to 7 market days
3) If less, sell or wait it out."
http://mechinvesting.wikidot.com/sma-slope

[SMADiff] and [AltSMAD] are the same. [SlopeAlt] goes negative on the same date 20250410. [SlopeRRS] remained positive.

  Date    [SMADiff]  [AltSMAD]  sma:1,200  sma:11,200  sma:1,10  sma:201,10  [SlopeRRS]  [SlopeAlt]
20250401    18.09      18.09    5,760.22    5,742.13   5,676.29   5,314.48      0.13       0.068
20250402    17.41      17.41    5,761.28    5,743.87   5,678.13   5,329.89      0.13       0.065
20250403    16.40      16.40    5,762.47    5,746.07   5,677.70   5,349.71      0.12       0.061
20250404    14.30      14.30    5,762.30    5,748.00   5,651.06   5,365.12      0.12       0.053
20250407    10.38      10.38    5,760.30    5,749.92   5,591.72   5,384.10      0.11       0.039
20250408    5.88       5.88     5,758.18    5,752.30   5,521.18   5,403.67      0.10       0.022
20250409    1.31       1.31     5,755.72    5,754.41   5,441.80   5,415.59      0.10       0.005
20250410    -0.52      -0.52    5,755.69    5,756.21   5,416.27   5,426.75      0.09       -0.002
20250411    -3.15      -3.16    5,754.79    5,757.94   5,373.74   5,436.84      0.09       -0.012
20250414    -4.79      -4.79    5,754.26    5,759.04   5,351.98   5,447.69      0.08       -0.018
20250415    -6.33      -6.33    5,753.90    5,760.23   5,331.39   5,457.95      0.08       -0.023
20250416    -7.82      -7.82    5,753.47    5,761.29   5,307.75   5,464.13      0.07       -0.029
20250417    -9.93      -9.93    5,752.54    5,762.47   5,268.22   5,466.81      0.07       -0.036

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