*                         3/2      3/9      3/16     3/23/26
S&P 500 Index             6878.88  6740.02  6632.19  6506.48
Trailing 12 month PE      27.07    26.44    25.93    25.33   
Trail Earnings yield      3.69%    3.78%    3.86%    3.95%
Forward 12 month PE       22.97    22.46    22.04    21.55
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.35%    4.45%    4.54%    4.64%
90 day tbill yield        3.67     3.69     3.72     3.74
10 year tbond yield       3.97%    4.15%    4.28%    4.39%
Arezi Ratio               0.99     0.98     0.96     0.95
Fed Ratio                 0.91     0.93     0.94     0.95

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 73%
stocks, 29% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 53%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 82%.

Elan

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