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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Author: ges ✧❂🐝 HONORARY
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 86257 
Subject: Watching the Herd
Date: 10/04/26 6:48 PM
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His analysis is always interesting.

This week he has an article titled: "Asset Classes and Financial Contraction"

watchingtheherd.substack.com - Asset classes and financial contraction

A snippet from the end of the article:

Think about the hierarchy of asset classes then ponder recent risks evident in each area:

Stocks? -- A complete lack of meaningful enforcement of SEC rules regarding fraud, insider trading, etc. makes sudden downward shocks far more likely.

Bonds? -- Fraudulent / predatory lending from banks and private equity firms to poorly managed private companies has delayed recognition of underlying poor performance of a wide swath of companies who owe trillions.

TIPS? -- Likely under-protecting investors via government falsified statistics regarding inflation.

Regular Treasuries? -- Exponentially growing US debt and Trump’s alienation of allies has poisoned the worldwide market for additional US debt, making ALL Treasuries much riskier than even current paper prices reflect.

Stable value funds? -- Liquidity of SVFs is directly dependent upon the stability of corporate bonds and the liquidity of their insurance underwriters who are invested in the same assets.

Money markets? -- The Treasury’s attempt to build a cash pile in its General Account is sucking up huge amounts of dollars required to maintain liquidity for money market accounts.

Cash? -- The primary risk from bank failure might be slight on paper but cash at 0% is a net-inflation money loser as well.

People have been wondering for the last two years why markets haven’t reacted more negatively / disastrously to the actual economic reality at hand. The answer is that markets HAVE been reacting, but doing so in ways designed to disguise recognition by mere mortal consumers while protecting the gains enjoyed by those in control of the markets. The contraction isn’t COMING, it’s already been in progress. The powers that be have been doing their best to keep their adjustments as far away from the exponential part of the curve to delay the collapse while they protect their gains.
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This community has written 86,214 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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