Post #75981 by wzambon on the US Policy board

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Trump started a stupid war, both sides blew up things, and infrastructure was destroyed that will take years to recover.

Any deal is unlikely to be much if any better than the deal Obama negotiated or was on the table before this stupid war started. The world will be worse off because of the damaged infrastructure.

If Iran remains in control of the strait, we will all be much worse off even if Iran gives up its nuclear dust in return.

Today, it’s clear that Trump lied about everything. And Trump is negotiating with a much more hardline regime than the one it bragged about killing.

Looking Ahead

I don’t know where the futures open Monday. And no one else does either.

Maybe we have a deal soon and maybe we don’t.

So, I will repeat something I have said for weeks. It’s not clear what Trump’s goals even are. In contrast, Iran’s immediate goal is to punish Trump as much as possible regardless of what it costs them. Iran’s top long-term goal is remain in control of the strait.

In terms of punishing Trump, delays suit Iran just fine.

Brilliant Blockade?

I keep reading on X how brilliant Trump was to block the strait. Allegedly, it’s all part of Trump’s master plan.

But why not this path in the first place? Instead we have huge infrastructure damage everywhere.

None of this was planned. Trump makes things up as he goes.

And how brilliant is it to have Iran blocking all non-Iran traffic with Trump blocking the rest? Essentially no oil will get through. That’s a supply disruption of 2.15 million barrels a day. Declines in oil futures won’t last in this stalemate.

Trump cheerleaders say the blockade will force Iran to accept Trump’s deal. But what deal is that? Trump lied about the deal Iran accepted.

This reminds me of how sanctions were supposed to destroy Russia, but didn’t.

Reflections on Regime Changes

Other than boots on the ground, there have been no successful regime changes ever. In this case, the killing all of Iran’s top leadership resulted in an even tougher regime to deal with.

Sometimes regime changes don’t work even with boots on the ground. We spemt trillions and trillions of dollars in Afghanistan. Guess what? The Taliban is back running things.

Meanwhile, all we really have from Trump is lies. Before the war started we heard the exact same lies. “Iran is ready to deal”.

Iran will never be ready to deal if Trump keeps insisting on terms no nation could accept.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/iran-denies-strait-...

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