No. of Recommendations: 10
Typical "JC" move: promise anything, to get what you want now.
Now, Trump is throwing shade on his own deal.
Trump may not understand his own deal. The capitulation has already happened. The active fighting has stopped, the blockade has been lifted, and Iran is able to sell oil again (they've already moved several tankers worth through the Strait). There's no dispute that's happening....which means Iran has already won this phase of the war. The U.S. tried to make them agree to terms on their nuclear program by force of arms, and Iran was able to say "no." Seizing the Strait worked as a tactic, and we were forced to stop attacking them/blockading them in order to get it open again.
Done and dusted.
We have agreed, in writing, to unfreeze assets and waive sanctions. That *might* be inconsistent with Trump's comments - he might not know or remember that we agreed to do this immediately, before the Final Deal. But given that Iran's already out there selling oil and that we want them to sell oil to get the price down, I suspect that the Administration will take the position that unfreezing and removing sanctions isn't "giving them money," and they're already making arguments that Trump can waive the sanctions without Congressional approval.
He said it out loud. Stalling tactic. Watch the kabuki dance be extended past election day.
Some of the kabuki dance will continue, sure. My money would be that there's never going to be a "Final Deal," but the parties will continue to pretend there will be for the rest of Trump's term.
But the more important negotiations are already over. The negotiations to open the Strait again and get oil prices down. Those were never a kabuki dance. They were serious as a heart attack, because Trump desperately need the Strait open again. And that's why those negotiations actually reached an agreement, and an agreement that is being implemented. The Strait is open, Iran's selling oil again, the U.S. has ceased the blockade and has aborted the military action against Iran. No kabuki there; that was all real, and Iran forced Trump to capitulate.
