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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: Goofyhoofy ✸✹🐝🐝 HONORARY
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 4582 
Subject: Re: Powell Comments Today
Date: 02/09/23 9:27 AM
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Alan Bindner *(Economist at Princeton) has a response:

Some­what? In truth, the first and sec­ond halves of 2022 were like two dif­fer­ent worlds in terms of in­fla­tion. The most stun­ning ex­am­ple is the be­hav­ior of the over­all con­sumer price in­dex. While this mea­sure of in­fla­tion isn't the Fed's fa­vorite (more on that shortly), it gets vastly more pub­lic at­ten­tion than any other mea­sure. The CPI rose at an 11.1% an­nual rate in the first half of 2022 and a 1.9% an­nual rate in the sec­ond half. No, that is not a typo'a tad un­der 2%.

One pos­si­ble rea­son may be that the Fed's 2% in­fla­tion tar­get ap­plies not to the CPI but to the de­fla­tor for per­sonal con­sump­tion ex­pen­di-tures'a wonk­ish point, but it's true. How­ever, PCE in­fla­tion also crum-bled'from 8% in the first half of 2022 to 2.1% in the sec­ond. That's 'only' a 6-point drop, less than the 9-point drop in CPI in­fla-tion, but still re­mark­able. The FOMC calls that 'eas­ing some­what?'
wsj.com - The fed now has a good chance at a soft economic landing recession rate hikes central bank inflation economy w
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