Frankly, I think the Democratic Party will experience a vicious civil war between the Sanders and Clintonian wings and unless the progressives win, the democratic establishment is in a death spiral. They have nothing to offer an increasingly black and brown working class.

But that's the problem. I think the Democrats have a serious problem even if the Sanders/progressive wing wins.

What Sanders and the progressives miss, I think, is that the working class dislikes some of their major policy prescriptions. They dislike prioritizing fighting climate change - a lot. They dislike liberalizing immigration movements. They dislike progressive approaches to criminal justice. They dislike the use of technocrats and credentialed folks to make policy decisions that involve "should" questions of policy. And they dislike a lot of their social values.

These aren't just - or even primarily - the priorities of the PMC. They're the priorities of the young college-educated segment of the "Bernie Bros" that are now a bit older and wielding a lot of power in the coalition.

That wasn't a problem while the GOP establishment was dedicated to some policy positions that the working class also hated - free trade, entitlement reform, and immigration as a source of cheap labor. But Trump's killed those folks. That stuff is dead, now - the GOP is very truly NOT a free trade, guest worker, get rid of Medicare and Social Security party any more. So now the working class' long slide towards Republicans based on social issues has even less friction.

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I think the most illustrative example of this problem for Democrats is climate change. Progressives care a lot about it. It might be their top priority. Progressives generally try to avoid prioritizing things, preferring "everything bagel" approaches - but when push came to shove and they were forced into the crucible by Manchin and Sinema during the BBB negotiations, the climate change provisions were what came out. That's what the IRA ended up having as its largest component. The Green measures. And even then, the progressives were furious and disappointed about it:

salon.com - Varshini prakash to the end build back better climate change

The problem isn't that the working class is opposed to fighting climate change - it's just something they care very little about. They care a lot more about a lot of other things. So when the party elevates climate change as their top priority - that climate change is the "whole of government" priority that shows up in Department of Defense policy and new SEC regulations - it just means the Democrats are out of step with the working class.

Even if the progressives were completely in charge, they'd still be missing the boat. They'd be primarily focusing on the things that they care about, rather than the things that the working class cares about.