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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal ✶☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: Is Morningstar dishonest?
Date: 01/04/26 10:13 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
I calculate an average equity premium (1yrExcessSR) of 6.1% using the Shiller CAPE data. This is close to what Wikipedia writes "around 5% to 8% in the United States".

                avg
AvgCAEYb 7.7%

Avg10yrStockSR 6.7%
Avg5yrStockSR 7.0%
Avg3yrStockSR 7.2%
Avg1yrStockSR 8.4%

10yrExcessSR 4.6%
5yrExcessSR 4.9%
3yrExcessSR 5.0%
1yrExcessSR 6.1%


"The equity risk premium is equal to the difference between equity returns and returns from government bonds. It is equal to around 5% to 8% in the United States. The risk premium represents the compensation awarded to the equity holder for taking on a higher risk by investing in equities rather than government bonds. However, the 5% to 8% premium is considered to be an implausibly high difference and the equity premium puzzle refers to the unexplained reasons driving this disparity."
en.wikipedia.org - Equity premium puzzle

Some preliminary actionable signals:

high CAEYb (qCAEYb=4)
expect high Avg1yrStockSR (high 1-year real stock return)
increase stock leverage

low CAEYb (qCAEYb=0)
expect low Avg3yrExcessSR (stock return lower than bond return)
wait 1 year, and then increase bond weight.
(Avg3yrExcessSR is lower than Avg1yrExcessSR, and so the best relative bond returns were in years 2 and 3.)

But averages can hide problems, and so more work is needed on this possible signal.
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