Ok then,

Substantial evidence: There is enough evidence for a reasonable person to support a conclusion.

I wasn't trying to use legalese at all. But there's enough evidence for a reasonable person to support a conclusion that it did occur.

So beyond a reasonable doubt is 95% certain. Clear and convincing is around 80% certain. Preponderance of the evidence is 51% certain, or beyond equipoise, which is 50%. So what do you think "likely true" is in percentages? I've never heard it used in any legal sense whatsoever. Anything that falls below 50% isn't really worth talking about in legal terms for me. I wasn't intending "likely true" to be a legal term.

But the evidence is adequate for a reasonable person to support a conclusion that the findings in the report about Matt Gaetz did occur.