No. of Recommendations: 5
What multiple are you paying for the "pretty darned sure" average real EPS in the interval 5-10 years from now?
I am considering creating a system by which I don’t try to estimate much of anything at all.
I have spent almost my entire investing career watching the high-fliers and (so called) Rule Breakers soar without me being attached (one or two exceptions), and as I gaze back I wonder why?
Here’s a list of companies I didn’t buy because they seemed just far too expensive, and forever:
Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Yahoo!, Tesla, Nvdia, Qualcom, Dell, Netflix, Google, and lots of others.
Two that I did, more as a small flyer than anything, were AOL and Facebook. (I put in a bid for Google’s Dutch auction but the price flew by so fast I never got close.) AOL was a fluke; I worked next to a pod of originals in the Chicago Tribune Tower who got me interested; Facebook was an addiction for Mrs. Goofy so I bought as it cratered after the IPO.
Anyway, looking longingly at the tremendous gains by some of those in the “never bought” pile I wonder if I would have the constitution to ask for a “do over” and be able to handle it. I don’t think so, but my saliva glands activate whenever I see the prices and gains of those listed in the winner’s pile.
I figured the Falling Knives troop would give me some objective reality on how many of those wunderkind companies also go the other way.
Still…. (Salivating)….
