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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 15055 
Subject: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/03/2023 2:56 PM
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I mean, assuming you like that sort of thing.

Up about 6.7%

Jim
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Author: ciao8   😊 😞
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Subject: Re: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/03/2023 3:24 PM
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Hi again Jim,
Just one of your followers nagging once again for an updated version of one my favorite charts! Would trade for a bottle of your finest!

http://www.stonewellfunds.com/BuybackChart2022.png

ciao
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/03/2023 3:30 PM
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Probably most useful to wait for updated valuation after the quarterly report tomorrow...

But there is this one to tide you over, from Aug 5
http://stonewellfunds.com/FairValueChart2023-Q2.pn...
I could talk about what particular valuation model it used, but hey, that's boring : )

Jim
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Author: newfydog   😊 😞
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Subject: Re: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/03/2023 3:43 PM
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It is nothing short of a miracle to me. I sold some m near the recent peak and bought back in last week. I know that market timing is a bit of a fool's errand, but this time the fool got away with his bad behavior.
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Author: Bluehorseshoe   😊 😞
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Subject: Re: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/03/2023 3:53 PM
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I know that market timing is a bit of a fool's errand, but this time the fool got away with his bad behavior.

I believe a wise man recently mentioned closing out covered calls to have the firepower to do it all over again when the share price likely rises again. Turned out to potentially be good advice. I sold a few more covereds this week ahead of earnings. Here's to being a fool.

Jeff
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Author: ciao8   😊 😞
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Subject: Re: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/03/2023 4:59 PM
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' I could talk about what particular valuation model it used, but hey, that's boring : )'

''''''''''

Looks like it's the 'Stairway To Heaven' model.
Has a few landings to catch your breath & never a retrenchment!

ciao
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Author: WEBspired   😊 😞
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Subject: Re: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/03/2023 5:13 PM
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'Up about 6.7%'

Can we please annualize that, kind sir?! :-) Hope op. earnings look pretty good in the am. Btw, I thought Apple price held up pretty well, all things considered.
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 15055 
Subject: Re: Not a bad week for the price
Date: 11/04/2023 6:18 AM
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Looks like it's the 'Stairway To Heaven' model.
Has a few landings to catch your breath & never a retrenchment!


Even better. It doesn't even have flat spots! Those apparent plateaus are actually rising at inflation + 1.5% since the last time the "high value to date" changed. The notion is that during bear markets, the true value of a share is still rising, you're just not seeing it in the data yet.

The reason for the low rate (1.5%/year) is that it is conservative, and also empirically makes price prediction work the best at the one year horizon. A floor rate of inflation + 4% makes for a smoother graph and is probably closer to true economic reality, but price doesn't catch that "as-yet-unseen" value till a few years after a bear. Other than the fact that it's a smoother graph, I don't have a justification for using the more aggressive 4% number other than that it feels good, so I stick with the 1.5% which has more practical use for me.

Jim
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