Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 11
No. of Recommendations: 4
In the question, it was not at all clear to me that he meant "the Class A shares that are *not* owned by Buffett" in 2040 or 2050 - the way he leads the question, I think Buffett is going to answer it with regard to his personal shares. He makes clear in the additional commentary that he understands all of Buffett's Class A shares will be converted to Class B shares.
Becky Quick pressed on the Taiwan issue with regard to Apple shares (how he's concerned about China in selling Taiwan Semiconductor). Buffett said he "weighs that in" but Apple is, basically, a brand with VERY high loyalty.
He illustrated Apple's loyalty by saying "if you're an Apple user and somebody offers you $10,000 but the only provision is they'll take away your iPhone and you'll never be able to buy another, you're not gonna take it. He said this is different for Ford. If offered the same $10,000, you'll take it and buy a Chevy.
I like my iPhone, and I've been using one exclusively since 2014, upgrading models as we go along. I was very impressed by how it interfaced with an iPad I had for my job, and the other phone users in my family have iPhones too. But $10K is a lot of money. I don't know how he came to that number, but I'd do the switch for $10K in a heartbeat. I already back up photos from my phone to a portable drive and a windows computer, and my brother switched from Apple to Android a few years ago and has been happy.
That said, I don't know that any of the other phone manufacturers are in a better situation if - heaven forbid - we end up without access to Chinese cell phone factories.
No. of Recommendations: 5
I don't know how he came to that number, but I'd do the switch for $10K in a heartbeat.
I asked my wife that question and she said no without missing a beat. Then she said, for $100,000 I'd think about it.
The reason I have an iPhone is because everyone in my family had one. I was perfectly happy with my android phones, but I couldn't FaceTime with parents or kids, missed out on a decade long family group chat, and generally became known as the old technology curmudgeon. So I finally folded.
Apple is a fortress defended by fanatical acolytes.
No. of Recommendations: 0
what is more worrisome ?
A. he thinks $10k can buy a chevy
(i dont think even warren would drive a used chevy spark)
B. his huge investment in apple depends on a non-scientific anecdotal survey for its qualitative support?
No. of Recommendations: 20
what is more worrisome ?
A. he thinks $10k can buy a chevy
(i dont think even warren would drive a used chevy spark)
B. his huge investment in apple depends on a non-scientific anecdotal survey for its qualitative support?
Neither worries me.
A. He doesn't think $10k buys a Chevy, he just thinks people are so attached to their iPhones, they would turn down 10x the value of an iPhone if it meant never buying another one, but they would probably not turn down $10k if it just meant switching from Ford to Chevy. Neither the Android phone nor the Chevy car actually needs to cost $10k for that to be true.
And in fact, the scale issue makes the allegeance seem even stronger. If you compare the $10k incentive to the cost of the item, if you would turn down 10x the value of the iPhone, an equal degree of brand loyalty should mean you would turn down $500,000 to never buy another F-150 - imagine.
B. We don't know exactly what factors his huge investment depends on, although brand allegeance is probably one of them. And I don't think any survey was involved - it's just an illustration of the fanatical devotion of Apple customers to their brand. We don't know what other factors he has also considered, but they likely include the low price:earnings ratio (at the time of purchase), the solid debt-free financials, the longevity of their brand's strength, the board's cash return policies, his confidence in the board, their conservative investments in R&D (cf Facebook and Google), the recurring nature of the revenue stream, the pivotal role of a smartphone in people's lives (in addition to their brand preference), etc. etc.
dtb
No. of Recommendations: 0
well, even though i have a small stake in brk and believe apple was the single greatest public mkt investment by warren, we disagree on this.
it's not a big deal he doesnt know what a chevy (or even most consumer items) cost, this is just normal gerontological progression. people seem much more amused when its younger politicians that dont know, even if they are not wealthy.
regarding apple, i clearly stated this anecdote seems unsupported as a strong qualitative position, knowing that he gives equal or more weight to the quantitative.
i would say there are some signs of decline almost every time buffet\munger have extended dialogues. recently they quickly reversed their position on tsmc because of 'suddenly' :
- china seems a threat.
- capex seems to become high in semicon
this board is a good reminder on the keyman risk the cult of buffett poses to brk. when the inevitable occurs, could be a good max opportunity based on sentiment shifts.
No. of Recommendations: 19
it's not a big deal he doesnt know what a chevy (or even most consumer items) cost, this is just normal gerontological progression. people seem much more amused when its younger politicians that dont know, even if they are not wealthy.
Let's just examine what he said:
If you're an Apple user and somebody offers you $10,000, but the only provison is they'll take away your iPhone, and you'll never be able to buy another, you're not going to take it. If they tell you if you buy another Ford car, they'll give you $10,000 not to do that, you'll take the $10,000, and you'll buy a Chevy instead,' Buffett said during an appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box.
I can see how you might interpret this as Buffett thinking that you can 'take the $10,000, and you'll buy a Chevy instead'. But there is another possibility: that he is saying $10,000 is enough compensation to get you to switch from Ford to Chevy, but not necessarily enough to actually buy the Chevy without additional funds. The $10,000 is just a lot of money to turn down for not buying a roughly equivalent item (say, an Android phone), with no particular relationship to the price of the phone, and the same would be true for the car.
Buffett is a numbers guy - I'm pretty confident he knows how much a car costs in 2023, in addition to knowing what shares of IBM and 5-year treasuries are trading at. If I saw any other trace of a loss of numerical proficiency, I would be more inclined to worry about the possibility that he thinks a Chevy costs only $10,000, but as it is, I think you should consider the more generous interpretation.
dtb
No. of Recommendations: 0
no problem giving the GOAT some BoD...and a whole slew of other acronyms. slippage still probable.
i wonder what the omaha turnout and financial press coverage will be in the post-eulogy era. odds are it turns to those far less worthy.
No. of Recommendations: 13
I'm a big fan of him. I wish he still posted here
I see Rational is going back to charging for articles.
Regarding the Buffett Apple comment, it's perfectly obvious what he meant, and I tend to agree with him.
People deep into the Apple ecosystem wouldn't switch to Android (for life) for $10k.
Heck, I wouldn't. I tried a Google phone. Hated the darn thing.
I just counted 13 Apple devices my family of 5 uses daily. Plus a sub to Apple TV+ with MLS add on.
We're doing our part.
