No. of Recommendations: 7
I agree that prudent view of the future has to encompass (among other scenarios) the one that at present seems most likely.
As for whether the report is a cause of the current low cycle of valuation for the companies involved, that may or may not be a factor. Beats me. Stock prices do things for strange reasons.
there’s a case to be made that O&G could provide a significant added opportunity for investors to build a long term portfolio at reasonable prices today...
There are merits to the investment case, but to me the two main arguments against a big move of a portfolio into oil and gas are:
* There is no such thing as oil and gas production, merely oil and gas extraction. So the business, as it sits on any given day, is always in wind-down mode. To prevent that, it has to perpetually reinvent itself by getting access to additional stock. In that way it's a bit like a company selling high tech devices - the current product will no longer generate revenue after a while, so something new has to be found, over and over forever. Worse in this case, as every round gets harder and harder in O&G.
* Obviously, no control over pricing. Not fatal if you're the low cost extractor, but definitely not one of the qualities you WANT in a business.
Neither of these is fatal, but they are certainly the stand-out issues on why it's not the perfect line of business to be in. At least not "all in".
Jim
