Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) |
Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 4582 
Subject: US trade
Date: 04/03/25 5:38 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 26
Well, I see some sand has been thrown into the gears of international trade. Living in Europe as I do, it's the transatlantic trade routes that are of particular interest.

My main wonderment is whether anyone at the US government knows that the US has no trade deficit with Europe? The trade has been very closed to balanced for many years.

A much more subtle question is whether anyone there knows that bilateral capital account surpluses (trade deficits) are meaningless, as it's only the aggregate balance of a country that matters? i.e., the sum of all positive and negative accounts across all trading partners.

Imagine the US sells machine tools and licenses for a chip design to Taiwan (in return for money), they make chips and send them to China (in return for money), China assembles an electronic widget and sends it to the US (in return for money). It's entirely possible for the net trade sum for all three countries to be balanced (no country has any current account surplus or deficit, no trade surplus or deficit), but all three bilateral relationships to be "unbalanced". There is nothing wrong or unsustainable about this, and in fact all three countries are probably much better off for the trade having taken place. If one of those three insists on balancing its bilateral trade with one or both of the other two, all three are poorer.

Some people think a trade deficit of $1 is a loss of $1 and simply can't be persuaded otherwise, forgetting that you do get stuff in return (duh). And usually more than the amount of the same stuff you'd get for $1 bought from somewhere else or made locally, so it's usually a net value gain for the importing country. That isn't to say that there aren't other smaller effects both benign and unfortunate, but it certainly isn't a loss of $1 for the importing country.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,571 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (11) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community