Autonomy is looking realer and realer.

Robotaxi starting June 2025.

Optimus bot will be able to thread a needle and play piano.

It sounds exciting but...

Several manufacturers' version of driver assist are now rated as high or higher than Tesla's. Tesla's lead in this area seems to have eroded considerably.

As I understand it, the Robotaxi will feature remote human monitoring. That is still impressive, but Waymo was offering this four years ago.

I've watched a number of humanoid robot videos recently. Optimus does not appear to be in the top tier of offerings at the moment as best I can tell from the videos. Other manufacturers have AI capabilities that Optimus appears to lack and there are definitely more agile/dexterous robots out there. I'm not saying Youtube is a good way to evaluate robots, but if Tesla had something more impressive I'm sure they'd be showing it.

You gotta be blind not to see where this stock is going.

Let's look at some numbers:

Net Revenue
2022: $81.46 billion
2023: $96.77 billion
2024: $97.69 billion

Net Income
2022: $12.56 billion
2023: $15.0 billion
2024: $7.09 billion

Profit Margin
2022: 15.4%
2023: 15.5%
2024: 7.3%

Capex
2022: $7.2 billion
2023: $8.9 billion
2024: $11.3 billion

Revenues are flat, profits are down, and margins are down. Capex is up a lot, which can be bullish, in my view. But the devil is the depreciation will hit net income. Hard to justify the growth premium with those numbers.