No. of Recommendations: 22
rnam, I posted my long term results from holding Berk (and AJG) to remind people that holding a significant amount of stock (relative to your net worth) for a long time in what is obviously a solid business is a logical path. Time is your friend as they say.
This does not, that's NOT, negate what is obviously also a sound logic when Jim "lightens up" and/or adds back, that if you are using Berk to fund retirement...and his model obviously works. But he is disciplined and logical and if you do that game you must be too. I 100%, maybe even 150%, support the valuation posts that Jim provides here, they are wonderful particularly for those considering buying Berkshire.
The issue is if you sell them not only at what price do you buy back but HOW MUCH do you buy back. Many have trouble once they've sold buying back AS MUCH as they previously had as they are buying at what's most likely a higher price than was in the shares that they previously sold.
I often think, given when I first started posting on Berk forums was getting close to 30 years ago, that my $500,000-$600,000 or so of Berk wasn't back then considered anything special on the forum. But today the 25 shares is heading to $18,500,000. So on the forums from the beginning the theme was buy when it was a bargain and sell some when it was over-valued.
I just wonder, of those participating back then who used the in-and-out, how many have a proportional outperformance vs holding the shares? And again, the sell must be followed by a somewhat close to same proportion buy-back at some point (unless you are funding retirement) to outperform.
I'd say virtually no one has this type of result. But that's long term thinking and forums by their very nature are ALWAYS geared to hyper-focus on shorter term decision making.
