There are a few disparate premises in the question. 1. Long term lockdown policy in China (unknown). 2. Rate of growth China's economy (unknown, but as heuristic growing generally faster than elsewhere). 3. Relation of lockdown policy to trade with US (unknown but more relates to US trade (un)friendliness than china domestic policy) 4. Effect of that trade on US economy (unknown). 5. Effect of that economic change on MI performance (does it refer absolute or relative performance to the S&P500).

I have not answered one of them or seriously implied whether or how they are even connected, but just revealed them as separate premises.

In short, even if we have insights about each of the 1-4, I don't think it explains anything about how effective MI is.

MI is effective (for most participating) if our CAGR exceeds the S&P500 over 7+ years. Most MI investors (for that matter most serious value investors) are extremely skeptical about having an opinion of what the market will do next month or next year.

- Manlobbi