No. of Recommendations: 10
It's a little early to declare the entire thing a failure and/or start wringing our hands over what has been done or not done.But the flip side is that it's a little early to declare the entire thing a
success and assume we've ended the threat of Iran to the Free World, as LM was doing. No argument that the outcome of war is always uncertain. But right now, the
likelihood is that the Iranian regime is going to come out in charge at the end
as long as we don't have a full ground invasion. They've had decades to protect themselves against this exact scenario, and they're very well positioned to survive it:
https://fortune.com/2026/03/09/u-s-intel-assessmen...Doesn't mean the longshot won't come through. But the odds are that even a long, protracted "Libya-like" operation is still going to end with the regime still well in control of the country.
Their command and control is toast. Their Navy is now down 30+ ships and counting. Their Air Force has been severely degraded. Ballistic missile attacks are down over 90% and a high percentage of drones have been destroyed.None of which materially degrades the ability of the regime to maintain itself as the sole domestic governing power. Don't confuse operational success with strategic success. We have been very effective in destroying military assets of Iran, but destroying those military assets is exceptionally unlikely to accomplish any strategic goals beyond destroying those military assets. We can destroy their navy, their air force, and their missiles - but that's not going to oust the regime from power. The Administration has been remarkably opaque and inconsistent about even the goals of the war (much less what we're going to do to achieve them), but none of the things they've publicly stated we're going to do are likely to lead to the regime losing power.
And now the IDF is blowing up their oil storage facilities. Their export terminals will likely be next. Meanwhile, we'll keep eliminating their ballistic missile capabilities.We're already trying to push back on the IDF to get them to stop blowing up their oil facilities, so I don't think the export terminals will be next. We don't
want to destroy Iran's oil producing capabilities. Because that will lead to higher gas prices, and longer-lasting higher gas prices:
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/08/us-dismayed-israe...
