You're a tech. guy, not a CFA. How did you learn so much about investing?

I ran a company doing a lot of predictive modelling on big data sets (our biggest client was Excite, one of the pre-Google search engines), and co-founded an internet advertising firm. These were remunerative, so I had some money to invest. So I started trying those predictive modelling techniques on stock data, leading me to mechanical/quant investing. Then I started and ran a small hedge fund for about 6 years. (starting just before the credit crunch, alas)

Most of what I've learned that actually works has been from the back-and-forth conversations at these boards, and the reading and analysis I do in order to participate in them.

My best single rule of thumb: find a firm that is at least predictable enough that you can estimate their "pretty darned sure" average earnings per share 5-10 years out, and don't pay more than around 10-12 times that number. This works for profitless startups, steady-as-she-goes blue chips, and non-growing cash cows. And crypto ; )

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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