Post #231 by tecmo on the Falling Knives board

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No. of Recommendations: 10

If we take $3 base EPS @ 5%growth x5Yrs= 3.83 x 15PE =$57, 14.65%pa excluding 5.6% dividend. Still attractive IMO.

Just found this board and by chance was looking at Pfizer. These numbers are very close to what I had as a base case, but the bear case is also alarming...

            Base      Bull       Bear
EPS      : $3.50      $3.50      $2.25
Growth   :    5%         7%         3%
Multiple :   15x        18x        12x

Target   :   $65        $80        $30
Return   :   18%        23%         2%

The stock seems priced as if they are a declining business - which would require reviewing their drug portfolio. In the years leading up to the vaccine "bump" the EPS was

2018 : $3.00
2019 : $2.95
2020 : $2.22

tecmo
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