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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mapg ✭x2  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Modern Family EOM 28-Mar-25
Date: 03/28/25 5:19 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Name                     SP500         R1000EW     R1000       R2000     Transportation    Retail    Regional Bank    BioTech   SemiConductor
Symbol: (daily) SPY
EQAL IWB IWM IYT XRT KRE IBB SMH
As of (LastD) 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25 28-Mar-25
Signal_Status* BEARish BEARish BEARish BEARish BEARish BEARish BEARish BEARish BEARish
Signal_ChgD 20-Mar-25 27-Feb-25 19-Mar-25 14-Feb-25 27-Feb-25 04-Mar-25 27-Feb-25 14-Mar-25 11-Mar-25
Since_ChgD 8 29 9 42 29 24 29 14 17
Confirmed Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Status_MAC(50) Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance
ROC(50-DMA) -1.2% -2.2% -1.4% -6.7% -2.6% -7.7% -5.1% -0.8% -3.4%
Status_MAC(200) Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance
ROC(200-DMA) 20.6% 13.5% 20.5% 15.7% 7.2% 11.9% 26.4% 8.4% 30.3%
DMAC(50,200) 2.4% 1.9% 2.6% -1.0% 1.1% -2.2% 4.3% -3.0% -2.8%
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
LastD_Price 555.66 47.12 305.03 200.45 63.66 68.54 56.41 130.29 212.17
50-DMA 588.41 49.01 323.67 216.47 69.00 75.03 60.94 136.09 238.37
200-DMA 574.38 48.09 315.35 218.58 68.25 76.73 58.42 140.25 245.23
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
# Signals /Yr 1 1 1 3 7 3 3 5 5
# BuyD /Yr 245 230 244 207 179 229 203 176 217
# NeutralD /Yr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
# SellD /Yr 7 22 8 45 73 23 49 76 35
% BuyD /Yr 97% 91% 97% 82% 71% 91% 81% 70% 86%
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
52wL(Daily) 495.16 43.33 272.21 192.84 61.35 66.62 45.75 124.64 199.21
52wH(Daily) 612.93 51.95 337.54 242.40 75.40 84.31 68.90 149.47 281.27
% Off_52wH 10% 10% 11% 21% 18% 23% 22% 15% 33%
LastD_52wH 19-Feb-25 29-Nov-24 19-Feb-25 25-Nov-24 25-Nov-24 11-Dec-24 25-Nov-24 19-Sep-24 10-Jul-24
SinceD_52wH 37 119 37 123 123 107 123 190 261
CountD_52wH 42 25 43 11 5 8 11 7 13


The "Economic Modern Family" is a combination of three market index ETF's and five varying sectors & groups for "Market Analysis".
Trend indicators that give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
*My "Modern Family" signals(2) are not strictly identical to the (MarketGauge.com) "Phases Tutorial"(6).
Market Phases Rev 27-Sep-2024 Intermediate-Term(50d) and/or Long-Term(200d)
"BEARish" - phase when Status_MAC(50) is "RESISTANCE" while ROC(50-DMA) is Negative OR Status_MAC(200) is "RESISTANCE" while ROC(200-DMA) is Negative.
"Bullish" - phase when NOT "BEARish"
"Support" - is the level(floor) at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
"Resistance" - is the level(ceiling) at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)
"Confirmed" - when Status_MAC(50) AND ROC(50-DMA) both agree with "Signal_Status" phase.
ROC(50-DMA) = 50*SLOPE(F$458:F$507,$A$458:$A$507)/TREND(F$458:F$507,$A$458:$A$507,$A$458) Where F is 50-DMA and A is MktDay (ascending)
ROC(200-DMA) = 200*SLOPE(F$308:F$507,$A$308:$A$507)/TREND(F$308:F$507,$A$308:$A$507,$A$308) Where F is 200-DMA and A is MktDay (ascending)
Criteria that Refute - Moving averages do well in trending markets but they generate many false signals in choppy, sideways markets.
Description - After a crossover is identified, it is considered "not yet confirmed". Then additional confirmation is sought by watching the slope of the moving average.
Source of Data - Price data for Symbols in Modern Family are exported from real time charts to .CSV files after market close.
CountD_52wH - FYI: Ten year average 52wH/Yr count for .SPx, MDY, & IJH was 34, 20 & 16 as of 27-Sep-2024.
--- ---

GD_
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