Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (96) |
Author: mungofitch ✹✺ SILVER
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 22353 
Subject: Re: Dividends
Date: 01/15/24 11:40 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 8
I thought I'd find the data showing today's valuation is significantly higher than its peak in 1929, but the data I see has today's CAPE ratio at 32.2, and a peak 1929 CAPE ratio of 32.6 occurring in September.

On my figures, using weekly data, the current cap-weight US equities valuation level is 16.2% more expensive than anything from my start of data (1916) through to the 1990s.
The very earliest data get a bit iffy, of course, as there weren't all that many stocks with data available, and I had to splice some different data sources with longer histories. But from around 1926-1930 the market returns data set is better than the one used by most academic researchers.

The difference is probably just that I just use a smoother smoothing method than the E10 in CAPE.
I found four smoothing methods that seem to work adequately, one of which is E10. Then I scaled each of those by whatever factor made it best match current earnings levels best (since each smoothing method has some time lag). Then I take a simple average of those four methods. Why do I do that? E10 has the disadvantage of reporting a sudden upswing in the reported trend earnings on the 10th anniversary of any earnings recession. A "weighted moving average" (WMA) works better, because older data disappear gradually rather than suddenly.

Other smoothing and scaling methods will give different numerical results, but FWIW: My data set shows a current cyclically adjusted earnings yield of 3.251% (analogous to a CAPE of 30.76), versus a 50 year average cyclically adjusted earnings yield of 6.259% (analogous to a CAPE of 15.98). The 25-year valuation (just long enough to catch the tech bubble, credit bubble, and post-pandemic bubbles) gives an average CAEY of 4.067% (analogous to a CAPE of 24.59)--some optimists might consider that the "modern normal", which current levels exceed by only 25%.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (96) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community