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The NYT has done two pieces digging into why voters are still negative on the economy, even though inflation rates have come down. Since we've talked about that here, I thought they would be interesting.

The first points out that although average wages have increased faster than average prices, there's lots of people for whom that isn't true, and perhaps even more people that are still worse off than if pre-pandemic trends had continued:

But this is not a simple case of facts versus “vibes.” Economic statistics are based on broad averages. Dig deeper, and the story becomes more complicated. How a given family or individual has fared over the past five years depends on a litany of factors: whether the earners own their home or rent; whether they had to buy a car or send a child to day care; whether they were able to change jobs or demand a raise.

“I feel like some people are being very dismissive, saying, ‘Oh, people are wrong — there has been all this real wage growth,’ but that is a simple average,” said Stefanie Stantcheva, a Harvard economist who has studied how people experience inflation. “It’s actually very, very hard to say people are wrong — I would almost never say that.”

The bottom line: Most American workers are probably making more money today, adjusted for inflation, than they were in 2019. But not all have seen their pay keep up with their own cost of living, and many — perhaps most — are lagging behind where they would be if prepandemic trends had continued unabated.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/business/econom...

The other piece points out that voters are still annoyed at the higher level of high prices, and psychologically tend to regard higher prices and higher wages differently:

But they are also annoyed that prices are higher than they were before the pandemic; that levels are up, even if they are no longer rising as quickly.

“It’s not that they’ve lost touch with reality,” said Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, explaining that consumers often raised the issue of high price levels during their interviews. “High prices continue to weigh down their personal finances, and that remains very frustrating.”

Wages have climbed faster than prices for many consumers, but that is not true across the board. And people tend to see raises as something that they have earned, whereas they see price increases as something that is being done to them — perhaps even unfairly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/31/business/econom...

The latter piece also digs into the fact that voters tend to view the economy through a partisan lens based on who's in the White House.

Some things being conflated here.

Rates of gain or decrease, which represent how much something changes from Time Location A to Time Location B, and
Levels of prices and wages, which is what is baked into the economy at this point. What voters are clearly reacting to are pricing levels.

If a good cost $5 four years ago and now costs $20, then a voter will remember paying $5 bucks every time they swipe a credit card to pay $20. That's magnified if the good is an essential one or something purchased often. Every. Single. Time. they go to pay, they'll think about it.

If the democrats want to talk about how much rates have come down, that's nice, but a low rate merely determines what happens next to the price level already present in the economy. They've failed at that, mainly because there is no answer for it.

If the democrats want to talk about how much rates have come down, that's nice, but a low rate merely determines what happens next to the price level already present in the economy. They've failed at that, mainly because there is no answer for it.

Well, there are answers for it. Mainly that price rises were a global phenomenon (not just the U.S.) due to the shocks of the pandemic, so didn't result from any specific aspect of U.S. fiscal or monetary policy - and that in the U.S. (more than other countries) wages have also increased, and by more than prices went up.

So if a good cost $10 four years ago and now costs $12.50, voters will remember paying $10. But that voter is also making (on average) 25% more in their wages than they did four years ago, also. They just won't connect them.

Democrats have tried to communicate those points, but they've pretty much failed to move the needle with a lot of voters.

Well, there are answers for it. Mainly that price rises were a global phenomenon (not just the U.S.) due to the shocks of the pandemic, so didn't result from any specific aspect of U.S. fiscal or monetary policy - and that in the U.S. (more than other countries) wages have also increased, and by more than prices went up."

--------------------------------------------

And still nary a word about Trump's role in the inflation that hit the Country.

In Trump's words, he had the greatest economy in the history of the World. If that is true,
why did he cut taxes, which directly led to more dollars chasing fewer goods, and fewer service-providers???

Trump's ham-fisted bungling of the covid pandemic led to factory shutdowns, worldwide.
When fewer goods are produced, prices are going to rise.Remember the bare grocery shelves under Trump ? Remember the skyrocketing price of toilet paper under Trump ?? Remember the rationing
of toilet paper under Trump ?? I remember all of these things. Yet, to paraphrase Jethro Tull,
Trump just skate,skate, skating away from all blame for his significant contribution to inflation.

So I, again, am an outlier.

I judge the economy by the numbers. Though, being human, I'm sure that is colored a little bit by how I'm doing. If I'm doing poorly, I'm already going to start out with a negative view. But if the numbers do not support that, then I would have to say it was me or the sector in which I was employed (semiconductors, in my case). Though I might still want some sort of change that would help me.

even the majority of MAGA polled usually admit they are doing ok, but KNOW from rightwing media that most other people are in abject poverty without trump running the economy.
one tell here ; MAGA pivot to how THEY were (subjectively) doing much better under trump, which is near impossible to factually address in every individual situation.

every GOP policy point is ultimately based on anecdotal BS from agent orange. MAGA is unable and uninterested in realizing trump may accidentally get some point right, as this becomes justification for entire platforms, regardless of how vague.
(immigration is still broken, but lets fix it with an ineffective mass deportation plan using trump patrons' private companies that have no experience in the matter, and we can prospectively indemnify them from all criminal wrongdoing!)

So I, again, am an outlier.

Yep. That's not a bad thing, by the way. It just is what it is.

I don't talk about it much, but I am wealthy only in the friends and family I have around me. I took a financial risk mid life and it went very badly. I will never truly be able to retire. I very much notice the increase in prices because of the recent bout of inflation. And my income has barely kept pace. My biggest saving grace is that I was able to keep my house through those troubles, and although I still have a mortgage, it is a fixed cost and did not increase during the bout of inflation.

Like you, I understand that the economy, on average, is doing pretty well. But if you are below that average, you are struggling. So I can empathize with those who are at the lower end of the income spectrum. Their wages have likely not kept pace, or at best, are just now catching up, leaving them with deficits from the period when inflation rose faster than wages. So when those folks keep bringing up inflation as a problem, they're not always talking about inflation today - it's the inflation that happened in 21-23 that's really hurting them, and still hurting them today.

--Peter

Thank you for sharing your personal story a bit.

I realize I'm the last person you'd want to chit chat with on these matters but I'll just say - I believe what Ross Perot used to say that wealth, or being poor, or middle, whatever - money is a temporary state. And if the money is what makes one's identity and makes one's happiness - well- that's trouble.

Many of us have ups and downs. In my case - luckily - my "down" was partially planned, partially my fault, partially - some entities stuck it to me but I was able to land on my feet and while it's not like before - I'm comfortable. I don't think I'll have big trust funds leftover to pass on (like I should have and was on my way to) but hey, if I can say I had a rather easy life, no college, happy marriage, and I can tell the kids that "you can go up to Masters level, have no debt, and btw here's your 20% on a house, and here's a decent sized retirement account that would take you 10 years to put away".....AND I was able to be home before school, after school, things in between....well, I can live with that. Big Money was - awesome. And it's allowed to have a decent life even now. But Wifey and I always marvel - at the very expensive hotels we used to stay at pre-kid - yeah it was wonderful but the people were miserable or at least, very frosty. Now we still stay at nice places just not like before. I see 2-3 generations of families hugging, kissing, playing. my last trip to Florida I'm walking the beach, and the nicest hotel in town - the one I was at pre-kid, ALL couples faces buried in phones. Come back to my hotel - again hardly a dump and very nice---- the air just smelled happier, the people were real.

I am glad you were able to keep your home. I remember in 2008 - trust me - I was in the middle of the economic crash. Wife preggers and I was SO WORRIED the bank would call in my personal guaranteed business loans and take the house. I kept having daydreams of telling her - pack your shit we gotta go. I was SO WORRIED - would you believe - I bought I think $34,000 worth of gift cards (yeah, I expensed them business wise - daddy liked saving on taxes, judge away)....at Costco, Grocery store, TJ Maxx, etc. Figure it the shit hits the fan - well - no bank can take it :). Luckily, it worked out I came out smelling like a rose.

But the house thing is invaluable hence - good you kept it.

I know it's annoying when I say "Club 401K' but partially what I mean: I think it's so aloof, so out of touch, so Bubble Mentality to keep using "Noun, verb, S/P 500!". A *majority* of the country is actually on edge economically - some real, some perceived. And the thing is - from the Left we get platitudes and promises of handouts. TRUMP - "gives good ear" you know what I mean?

THIS is why the other day and still - I am hell bent on someone like Beshear getting in, and the Coastal/Sheeple types being quieted down for awhile.

I think that kind of environment builds consensus, which allows men of goodwill - maybe 60-65/100 Senators, to actually craft good stuff, and not gotcha stuff.

Anyhow, if you read this far I thank you. And as usual - questions, comments, insults - I take them all :)

Many of us have ups and downs. In my case - luckily - my "down" was partially planned, partially my fault, partially - some entities stuck it to me but I was able to land on my feet and while it's not like before - I'm comfortable. I don't think I'll have big trust funds leftover to pass on (like I should have and was on my way to) but hey, if I can say I had a rather easy life, no college, happy marriage, and I can tell the kids that "you can go up to Masters level, have no debt, and btw here's your 20% on a house, and here's a decent sized retirement account that would take you 10 years to put away".....AND I was able to be home before school, after school, things in between....well, I can live with that. Big Money was - awesome. And it's allowed to have a decent life even now. But Wifey and I always marvel - at the very expensive hotels we used to stay at pre-kid - yeah it was wonderful but the people were miserable or at least, very frosty. Now we still stay at nice places just not like before. I see 2-3 generations of families hugging, kissing, playing. my last trip to Florida I'm walking the beach, and the nicest hotel in town - the one I was at pre-kid, ALL couples faces buried in phones. Come back to my hotel - again hardly a dump and very nice---- the air just smelled happier, the people were real.

I’m sitting here thinking of when we had breakfast together. What was that- 2005 or thereabouts?

Before the events you describe, the ups and downs, the family, the rearranging of goals. Back then, I might have told you about my granddaughters? The youngest is now in law school and getting ready to have my first great-grandchild.

Life is good. Sounds like you are doing well. I’m happy for you.

Peace,
Bill Z

(immigration is still broken, but lets fix it with an ineffective mass deportation plan using trump patrons' private companies that have no experience in the matter, and we can prospectively indemnify them from all criminal wrongdoing!)

You forgot the final step. When this clusterf* goes bad - and it almost always goes bad with The Convict running it - blame it on the liberals. They blocked it. They changed it. They took it to court (probably because it was illegal, but that's not important).

I’m sitting here thinking of when we had breakfast together. What was that- 2005 or thereabouts?

Before the events you describe, the ups and downs, the family, the rearranging of goals. Back then, I might have told you about my granddaughters? The youngest is now in law school and getting ready to have my first great-grandchild.

Life is good. Sounds like you are doing well. I’m happy for you.
****

Yes! My guess is after re-election so it was prolly 2005 but heck could've been 03/04. Yes that was fun and a pleasure. Wow - law school is just so awesome and such a challenge. My kid sister became an attorney and is just crushing the world now. Congrats on great grand-child.

I tell you what, it's not easy. I look at the resources I have - that MY parents didn't have - and I wonder how in the hell they raised us kids because some days I just feel I'm breaking even on that score and how we're starting the college search and it's the first time I regret not going to college. I can't tell my kids jack squat about applying, how to do it, what is good, what isn't etc.

Thanks - I do hope things are going well with you, if memory serves you had some positive life-events not too long ago.

Immigration is easy.

It's something that can be a huge gift, OR a huge punishment or both. And America- superior country to the world is where a majority of people want to emigrate too, even to this day. My basic framework in the old days:


1.)IF you truly, for real have a persecution problem - yeah, come the hell over.

2.)IF you are educating yourselves in our universities - here is a Green Card stapled to your degree on graduation day.

3.)IF you are skilled at something WE NEED, you go to front of the line.

4.)English proficiency IS required. Bilingualism will be offered at hospitals. NOWHERE else after you've been here for 5 years. Speak OUR language.

5.)Assimilate to OUR culture. Sure we'll enjoy your food or music - we like that and thanks for bringing it BUT, you will assimilate to US, we will not assimilate to you.

6.)LIMITS LIMITS LIMITS. Do not allow pockets of unassimilated nations-within-nations. Give them time to catch up and become Americans.

7.)LIMITS on chain migration. Sorry, but if someone will be Medicare Age soon - sorry - no can do.

8.)PROFILING. Yes isn't it cool? YES it hurts innocents but - we'll keep score. Countries whose diaspora make up the highest rates of drugs, gangs, jails, crime, welfare? WE're gonna count that against your application if you're from there too. Maybe start self policing you know? IF your country's diaspora is more employed, paying more taxes, staying off welfare or out of prison, paying their doctor bills....well, your application gets affirmative action.

Janet Jackson said "what have you done for me lately" and that used to be my immigration stance.

OH, for the applicants that pass the above tests - I'd speed it up, THANK them for coming - even facilitate and maaaaaaaybe even offer seed money no different than colleges offering merit aid.

I want the educated, the aggressive, the assimilators, the English learners. I want them HERE, not Canada or Aussie or NZealand. The slugs? Crooks? Jihadis? Paris is fine for them.

Again, these were my views mid 2000. I guess nostalgic tonight.

I don't talk about it much, but I am wealthy only in the friends and family I have around me

I'm not wealthy that way or the other way. Most of my friends are scattered, lost, or dead. I have one friend from when I was 19 I saw a month ago. He's essentially a cripple from a motorcycle accident. I have another friend of 30 years I talk to monthly. And a few others. I'm OK financially (knock on wood), bought a house in a good neighborhood in mid-Florida. In the Philippines I could save $6k a year and use that for trips. After going through my budget, I realized I wasn't saving anything here, so I need to reduce expenses. So Aldi's it is. And I researched my health plan and can save money there.

My brother is nearby but he's explosive MAGA. You can't talk any politics around him at all - he's liable to go off on a ranting lecture as you exit stage left. I see him regularly, his wife and my wife are friends, but I try and talk repairs, etc., which I do. I recently had a dispute with a sprinkler company and won that, but I also enlisted the senior scam section of the local sheriff's office. :) I just went for advice and they took the case. I'm slowly learning the ropes on how to keep a house.

I had some reversals early and headed into the Government for stability, and retired. But coming back to the US after 10 years in the Philippines was culture shock. This place is just too expensive. :)

Anyhow, if you read this far I thank you. And as usual - questions, comments, insults - I take them all :)

I did read it all. (Which is more than I do for many of your posts.) And I do have one question.

Why don't you post like this more often? It's far more interesting and far more valuable that the constant "sheeple" and "club 401k" nonsense that generally fills your posts. As someone most likely from the other side of the political aisle from you, those kinds of posts don't foster discussion. They foster ridicule and even anger. If you really want to get your points across, post like you did this time and you'll get productive discussion instead of the useless crap that fills 90% of the posts here.

--Peter

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