The two indicators are Industrial Production: Total Index (INDPRO) "Next Release Date: Mar 18, 2025" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO

and Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (RRSFS) "Next Release Date: Mar 17, 2025" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRSFS

I dunno. These don't seem to me like leading indicators. More like coincident or lagging indicators for a recession. If you wait till yoy industrial production and retail sales growth are negative, I'd say you're already well into a recession, no longer predicting it.

Stock market indexes are considered among the best leading indicators for a recession. If you're trying to anticipate where the market is going, more than where the economy is going, I don't see the point of looking at coincident economic indicators.
I know it's nice to have some confirmation for market signals. For example, we had a bigger market drop last July (which didn't cross the 200DMA) and it was a total head fake. So how do you know? Can you ever know? Whatever you try to use, I think confirmation that we're in a recession would be far too late for a market timing decision.

Elan

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