*                         10/7     10/14    10/21    10/28/24
S&P 500 Index             5751.01  5815.03  5864.67  5808.12
Trailing 12 month PE      28.36    28.43    28.72    28.33
Trail Earnings yield      3.53%    3.52%    3.48%    3.53%
Forward 12 month PE       23.96    23.74    23.66    23.36
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.17%    4.21%    4.23%    4.28%
90 day tbill yield        4.73     4.73     4.73     4.73
10 year tbond yield       3.98%    4.08%    4.08%    4.25%
Arezi Ratio               1.34     1.34     1.36     1.34
Fed Ratio                 0.95     0.97     0.97     0.99

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 53%
stocks, 47% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 23%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 70%.

Elan

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.