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Interesting article notes that Pilot has entered into a partnership with GM and EVGo to install 2000 DC fast chargers at 500 Pilot truck stops on highways nationwide. EVgo, which will operate the charging stations, is already working with GM to put 3,250 chargers in major U.S. cities and suburbs in place. GM customers will get preferential treatment regarding reservations at these stations.

Presumably this is just the beginning of a national network of Pilot interstate charging stations that can handle ICE's and EV's of every size shape and description. It's the future, and they are going to need a lot of them! I know it is a tough business and others here can comment on that but they are proceeding cautiously. Only 17 stations to start. 250 in the upcoming year. https://investorplace.com/2023/03/3-reasons-buffet.... The July 2022 press release is at https://pilotflyingj.com/press-release/19335,

For those who are curious how it is going (slowly), a Dec 2023 update is available at https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/5/23988171/gm-ev-...

I think in the past, you had to understand insurance to understand BRK, and to some extent that still true. But more and more, BRK's future growth (and profits) will be in the energy business. Produce it, distribute it, sell it, finance it, mitigate it. Oil, gas, solar, wind, whatever the market requires. It's big. Greg is managing the transition to clean energy really well, and he is the guy to run this version of BRK. I can't wait until he buys OXY and puts Vicki in charge of BHE.

abromber

"until he buys OXY and puts Vicki in charge of BHE"

I have not considered this. Why do you think Vicki would be a fit for BHE? Heavily regulated utility business mainly.

The good bit about the charging stations is getting other people and the government to pay for them. Pilot has the parking lots and the interstate access. Just focus on selling the folks stuff while they wait for their charge. There is also another charging venture with Volvo Group to build charging for medium and heavy duty electric trucks -
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pilot-com...

Pilot has the parking lots and the interstate access. Just focus on selling the folks stuff while they wait for their charge. There is also another charging venture with Volvo Group to build charging for medium and heavy duty electric trucks -

I think the bloom is off the rose for EVs. This cold snap likely put the next-to-last nail in the coffin. Here's a 2 minute news clip from Chicago, EV owners saying 2 hours to charge up after waiting 2 hours in line. EVs dying while in line, having to push the dead dead dead car up to the charger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmxg-pFzMG8

After the news about Hertz dumping their 20,000 EVs because they just didn't work out.

I think the bloom is off the rose for EVs. This cold snap likely put the next-to-last nail in the coffin. Here's a 2 minute news clip from Chicago, EV owners saying 2 hours to charge up after waiting 2 hours in line. EVs dying while in line, having to push the dead dead dead car up to the charger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmxg-pFzMG8

After the news about Hertz dumping their 20,000 EVs because they just didn't work out.


The glass is two thirds full: Hertz may have dumped a third of its EV fleet, because they say they got ahead of demand, but they kept 2/3.

Dumping on EVs is the 'news of the day', but I think we should take it with a grain of salt. EV sales continue to be vigorous. Kelley Blue Book anticipates they will be up to 1.2 million cars in 2023 in the USA:

1,189,051 new electric vehicles (EVs) were put into service as the slow shift to an electrified future continued unabated. In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. That is up from 5.9% in 2022. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023...

And Q4 was better than the 2023 average, for both volume and market share, with 317,168 and 8.1%, respectively. The expect 10% market share next year.

It's true that growth is slowing: 2023 sales were up 'only' 40% year over year, where we previously had growth rates like 50% or 60%. But 40% annual growth is nothing to sniff at: it just means EV sales double every 2 years. If rates stay at 40% for 10 years, we would go from 10% in 2024 to over 100% in 2034. OK, maybe that's not going to happen, but you get my point.


In the rest of the world, EVs are doing even better - market share 16%, up from 13% in 2022. https://www.ev-volumes.com/ China and Europe are both at around 25% now. And there is a flood of new EVs coming out from almost all automakers. That may not be good for automakers' profits, but it is good for consumers and for Pilot's charging stations. And wait to see what will happen when we finally get some cheap EVs like what BYD and other Chinese makers are producing. 40% growth rates might turn out to be too low - imagine the world market for a car that is actually cheaper than gas cars, not just to operate but to purchase - I think we'll have lots of them soon.


Bottom line: gas prices are down, and it's winter in the Northern hemisphere, and cold weather makes us all worry about having an EV, but I think it's mostly just a bad news cycle. Better to watch the sales numbers, not the news, and especially not on social media, where if you read anything pessimistic about EVs you'll just get flooded with more of it.

dtb

Subsidized partly by a massive government aid package to fix and improve some hundreds (a few thousand?) of the EVGo chargers.

Bottom line: gas prices are down, and it's winter in the Northern hemisphere, and cold weather makes us all worry about having an EV, but I think it's mostly just a bad news cycle. Better to watch the sales numbers, not the news, and especially not on social media, where if you read anything pessimistic about EVs you'll just get flooded with more of it.

Could be. Nothing in the news is the actual full truth, it's all lies on one side or the other--or both.

That news clip from Chicago was interesting, though. When/if it happens, the first death from freezing in an out-of-charge EV is going to create a stir.

That news clip from Chicago was interesting, though. When/if it happens, the first death from freezing in an out-of-charge EV is going to create a stir.


Ok, but then we would have to compare it with how many times people freeze in an out-of-gas gas vehicles. Which should be close to zero, because most people call for help at some point before they freeze to death, whether they are driving a gas vehicle or an EV.

And even though running out of energy is more of a problem for range-limited EVs than it is for gas-powered vehicles, it's important to take a step back and look at the overall danger level. Some people will freeze to death in their EV, and some will be burnt to death by battery fires. But how does this compare with gas vehicles, which are driving around with 50kg of a highly inflammable liquid?

We are used to people burning to death in their gas cars, so you are probably right, the analogous EV deaths will create more of a stir. Bad publicity might hurt EV sales in the short term, but I doubt it will change the trend in the long run.

We are used to people burning to death in their gas cars...

Fires in gasoline power vehicles are indeed pretty common.
Fortunately car fires aren't usually fatal, around 1 per 600 fires--almost surprising given that people are as you note driving around with buckets of such inflammable stuff.
The movies have misled us!

"The car was on fire car" accounts for around 1.13% of US vehicle fatalities.
I presume the plurality are variations of the broad category "decelerated too fast"

Jim

All of the second tier charging networks look like a dead end to me. They are inferior in every way.

Pilot is a depleting asset. The cost of EVs is coming way down. All cars and trucks (OK maybe 99%) are going electric. Tesla will own the trucking and most of the auto market. I doubt that Pilot will make much money from Super or Megacharging even if they somehow get a contract. (WEB/Gates and Elon aren't friends and I doubt that Elon wants to work with BRK.)

Autoline Daily had a teardown/benchmarking expert on this week. TLDR: Legacy auto isn't catching up ... they've fallen hopelessly behind. Their outdated factories look like write-offs.

Sort of new Tesla Model Y owner now (4 months). Some observations...

Availability of reliable charging is crucial. No other manufacturer is even close to Tesla yet for road trips.

I can charge at home and at work. We have taken two long road trips so far and the supercharger network was great.

The cold weather has decreased battery range, we were aware of this going in and it hasn't been a problem.

We are on our second snowstorm in the Philly area this week and I haven't changed behavior. We would always make sure our ICE cars were gassed up and of course get milk, bread and beer :-). With the Tesla, you would want to make sure it was charged up as well.

It is the best car I have ever owned so far but I can see how it doesn't work for everyone yet. If I didn't have access to home charging, like some in apartments, I wouldn't own one, at least until charging stations are way more widespread.

I don't know much about the economics of gas stations, but I do have a friend who owned one. He said the gas was sold pretty much at cost, you make your money on people coming inside. I expect it will be the same for EV charging.

Feel free to ask any Tesla questions and I will be happy to share my experience.

Pilot is a depleting asset. The cost of EVs is coming way down. All cars and trucks (OK maybe 99%) are going electric. Tesla will own the trucking and most of the auto market. I doubt that Pilot will make much money from Super or Megacharging even if they somehow get a contract. (WEB/Gates and Elon aren't friends and I doubt that Elon wants to work with BRK.)

That's an interesting strong opinion. Sort of surprising to me. You think 99% of heavy duty trucking will be electric semis like the Tesla semi that they barely manufacture and primarily delivers potato chips on short routes? Isn't there another emission free technology that would be far better than battery powered big rig tractors? One that would need fueling infrastructure like large truck stops?

Let's say you are correct and Tesla owns heavy trucking going forward - where do you expect the big rigs to recharge? Obviously not at the existing Tesla supercharger stations for cars. Somewhere with showers, hot food and an enormous parking lot to accommodate all those out-of-service-while-they-charge-huge-batteries big rigs right?

Availability of reliable charging is crucial. No other manufacturer is even close to Tesla yet for road trips.

As a former Tesla owner of six years and now a non-Tesla EV owner of one year, I will second this. The Electrify America charging network is probably the most widespread in the US after Tesla and it is absolutely horrible in comparison. If you pull into any EA charging location I would be surprised if you find even half of the chargers functioning. In over six years of Tesla ownership I only recall having to switch stalls once due to a supercharger not working. Some of the other providers like EVGo who Pilot is partnered with seem to be better but it may just be due to the fact that their hardware is mostly newer than EA. Time will tell. I personally can’t wait to get supercharger access hopefully later this year for our non-Tesla.

If I didn’t have access to home charging, like some in apartments, I wouldn’t own one…

Agree here too. I tell people that if I owned one vehicle only and/or didn’t have access to charging at home, I wouldn’t own an EV either yet. The number one question people ask is “don’t you worry about charging it?”. I always say “Do you worry about charging your iPhone? No you don’t. You plug it in at night and wake up with a full charge. I do the same with my vehicle.” If I had to take my iPhone somewhere to “fuel it up” that would definitely be inconvenient.

General charging infrastructure needs to get better over time for the people that do not own homes to make the switch. Even something as “simple” as widespread availability of standard 120V outlets in longer term parking locations/street parking could be quite valuable for many. I was at the airport in Regina, SK a few years back and they had 120V outlets for engine block heaters at nearly all the parking stalls so probably easily done in the US too in many parking locations. Cars spend so many hours just sitting that 1-2KWh charging can still give most drivers 30-50mi (or more) range daily.

We still own one gas powered car but I really have no desire to own another. The convenience of EV 99% of the time for how we drive in our day to day lives far outweighs the minor compromises we might have to make the 1% of time we drive more than ~250mi in a day. I think if we were to go fully EV I would even be ok renting a gas powered car for any drives over 400-500mi. Or just fly.

Jeff

That's an interesting strong opinion. Sort of surprising to me. You think 99% of heavy duty trucking will be electric semis like the Tesla semi that they barely manufacture and primarily delivers potato chips on short routes? Isn't there another emission free technology that would be far better than battery powered big rig tractors? One that would need fueling infrastructure like large truck stops?

Tesla tried to implement new (DBE) technology at the same time they started building their own batteries. So far, it's been a failure and caused the delay on several projects like the semi. Seems like they're getting close to building the semi (truck) factory now. The truck is a great product.

Electricity is abundant, cheap and safe. Battery prices are dropping fast and eventually going much lower. Hydrogen isn't as cheap or safe.

Let's say you are correct and Tesla owns heavy trucking going forward - where do you expect the big rigs to recharge? Obviously not at the existing Tesla supercharger stations for cars. Somewhere with showers, hot food and an enormous parking lot to accommodate all those out-of-service-while-they-charge-huge-batteries big rigs right?

I expect short haul to be charged either overnight or at a stop when loading/unloading. Long haul will be autonomous, "fueled" where the land and electricity are cheap. Autos will drive themselves to a charger at night if an apartment dweller doesn't have good access to power.

Pilot is going to get Blockbustered. Don't know if it will take ten or twenty years but it will happen.

Autos will drive themselves to a charger at night if an apartment dweller doesn't have good access to power.

😂 Not an appealing option at all! Good luck with that one in large urban centers like NY city. I could only imagine the chaos and what it will look like to see countless urban dwellers all rushing around the city late at night charging up for the next day, compounding the already heavy congestion in the streets. Extrapolate that distressing image with inclement weather.

Horseshoe raises an excellent point about those living in apartments, condos, urban villages…I’m too lazy to research the demographics but compared to single households in the burbs, what is the ratio of that number, compared to those living in multi-unit congested developments. That right there is going to dictate the true market demand and just how fast or slow EVs will be embraced and adopted in the future. It’s the buildout of the massive infrastructure and ease of recharge that will be the defining factor for most, not necessarily an aversion to the technology of an EV.

Better tell WEB that Pilot is going to be blockbustered.

He said the gas was sold pretty much at cost, you make your money on people coming inside. I expect it will be the same for EV charging.

In that case, he'll be making a ton of money selling stuff to people waiting 2+ hours to get a charge. Time in queue waiting for people in front of them getting charged and waiting their turn, plus the time for their charge. Woo-Hoo!!

Pilot is going to get Blockbustered. Don't know if it will take ten or twenty years but it will happen.

What if the primary secret to their longevity moat is the human bladder?

All cars and trucks (OK maybe 99%) are going electric.

The key question though is over what time period?

If it happens in 5 years, then Pilot is worth less, although given the markup on snacks, not nothing.

If it happens over 50 years, the current value of Pilot is unchanged.

If I was going to be making book on this, I think it will be much closer to 50 than 5. Why? The grid can't handle the amount of power that would be needed for full electrification and baseline power generation has a loooong lead time. So even if the EVs were free, we couldn't charge all of them. And it will take hundreds of billions in infrastructure investment to deal with this.

(In a previous life I was a member of the IEEE Power Engineering Society back when I was dealing with utility scale stuff.)

Some actual data from Norway where 1/4 of cars are EVs, and the winters are pretty cold:

"The country has been experiencing extreme cold conditions since the beginning of the year, and Viking, a road assistance company (think AAA), says that it responded to 34,000 assistance requests in the first 9 days of the year.

Viking says that only 13% of the cases were coming from electric vehicles (via TV2 – translated from Norwegian):

He explains that 13 percent of the cases with starting difficulties are electric cars, while the remaining 87 percent are fossil cars. Setrom says that 23 percent of the cars in Norway are electric cars. This means that electric cars are almost twice as good as fossil cars in the cold.

To be fair, this data doesn’t adjust for the age of the vehicles. Older gas-powered cars fail at a higher rate than the new ones and electric vehicles are obviously much more recent on average."

https://electrek.co/2024/01/17/electric-vehicles-f...

He explains that 13 percent of the cases with starting difficulties are electric cars, while the remaining 87 percent are fossil cars. Setrom says that 23 percent of the cars in Norway are electric cars. This means that electric cars are almost twice as good as fossil cars in the cold.

It means: "..... almost twice as good as fossil cars in the cold" - - - when it comes to starting difficulties.

Which Btw is not at all surprising in light of the one small battery a petrol car depends on to start. What IS surprising for me: That according to this EV's DO have starting difficulties in the cold. As even "nearly double as good" is exaggerated, together with the age differential you mention (older petrol cars often have older batteries too): Where is the difference when you compare a new EV with a new petrol car in that single reliability respect?

What it definitely does not say: That EV's are better in the cold. Traction? Reliability in extreme cold (other than starting)? Etc.

What it definitely does not say: That EV's are better in the cold. Traction? Reliability in extreme cold (other than starting)? Etc.

It definitely doesn't say a lot of stuff. It's a very short article. There are many more articles about the overall EV adoption experience in Norway and there are a lot of useful lessons from them - with no reason to think those lessons are inapplicable to, say, the US.

it means: "..... almost twice as good as fossil cars in the cold" - - - when it comes to starting difficulties.

Which Btw is not at all surprising in light of the one small battery a petrol car depends on to start.


A petrol car can generally start with a squirt of starting fluid--if it can be cranked with a jump.

Also, it can be refueled in 5 minutes, same time at -10 degrees F as at 70 degrees F. EV refuel--not so much at -10.

Another article regarding Norway.

https://insideevs.com/news/705338/norway-winter-ev...

“According to a story published by The New York Times, EV drivers in Norway are used to preheating their cars before going out for a drive in freezing temperatures.”

When it’s bitterly cold you need to keep your gas/diesel/electric vehicle plugged in and warm. Seems like an educational issue for the vehicle owning populace in general.


My other favorite quote from the article:
“And remember, people riding around in horse-drawn carriages used to laugh at motorists in the early days when petrol had to be bought from the pharmacy in glass jars.”

Everyone has to look at their own individual use case to determine whether the current technology will meet their needs. We drove our EV 80mi/130km yesterday in -10F/-12C temps at 80mph/130kmh speeds and had no issues and no anxiety. We did stop at a gas station but it was for over priced drinks and snacks between games. There is probably a future for Pilot.

Jeff

I understand what starting a fossil fuel engine means - i.e. you must start the engine to have power to drive. But an EV doesn't have an engine. It is just a battery powering motors so what exactly does starting an EV mean? Or maybe what does not starting mean? Does it mean that the battery voltage has dropped below some critical value that prevents the motor from operating at all?

Or maybe what does not starting mean?
So you could have someone who forgot to charge their car overnight, or is trying to eek out a few extra km to get to a charging location but doesn't make it, but...
EVs have a regular 12v battery in addition to the main battery pack. That battery can be just as temperamental as one starting a fossil fuel engine- performance OK until cold weather lets you know it's bad. When it's low on charge, you can't get all (any?) of the doors to open. Teslas with the 12v battery will refuse to start without it, although there seems to be a service method whereby you can bypass that by jump starting the 12v battery from the battery pack, or some other method. You'd then be able to drive somewhere to get it serviced, but if you let it "sleep" it's going to rely on the 12v battery again. I imagine other EVs are similar, and I'm not sure how well they recover from low charge 12v batteries.

Addison Lee is the biggest taxi company in London. They bought a bunch of electric VW ID4s as part of a plan to lower emissions in downtown London. To find out that it's tough to keep an electric vehicle in commercial use charged up. They are now getting fossil fueled vehicles.

Hertz in the US is getting rid of 20,000 Teslas after finding out that people don't want to rent them and that turning them around between rentals takes longer for charging.

And Pilot has nice toilets and sells snacks and drinks at a huge markup.

I think Pilot is going to do just fine.

(And if Buc-ees was publicly traded, I'd invest in that too. It's like a nano-Disneyland)

A nice article on Pilot & the Haslam’s.
Would guess a significant chunk of the sale proceeds will end up in philanthropy.


https://archive.ph/2024.01.22-151214/https://www.k...

ciao

Hydrogen cars by 2025 ? BMW and Toyota.... end of EV's ? engineers and eco's love hydrogen

https://www.drive.com.au/news/hydrogen-bmw-develop...

Hydrogen cars by 2025 ? BMW and Toyota.... end of EV's ? engineers and eco's love hydrogen

Gack! What problem does hydrogen solve that batteries don't? You can refuel hydrogen at a station faster than you can charge a battery at a station. Of course, you can't refuel your hydrogen car at night in your garage as you can an EV. When I had my Tesla, even with FREE supercharging I used superchargers ~10 to 20 times a year, on trips. My car was always full in the morning because I plugged it in when I got home each day.

And guess where you can get hydrogen fuel for your car? ALMOST NOWHERE! You think its hard to find a place to charge your EV? Nothing compared to finding Hydrogen. And at least your car you can charge at home, or even on the road from a regular electric plug, albeit pretty slowly.

Meanwhile, fuel cells cost a fortune. This guy https://www.arenaev.com/fuel_cells_vs_ev_batteries... paid $110,000 to replace the fuel cell in his Hyundai, the repair bill is shown in the article. Makes a $15,000 batter for an EV look pretty cheap.

Meanwhile, Hydrogen is NOT a green fuel. The cheapest way to get Hydrogen fuel is the same as the cheapest way to get Gasoline : use fossil fuels and refine them. The green way to get Hydrogen fuel is expensive just like the gree way to get Gasoline. Using Electricity to do electolysis on water is both expensive and inefficient (much more electric power is put into electrolysis than can be recovered from the Hydrogen fuel produced).

This is an expensive inconvenient technology that doesn't solve any actual problems. It is an expensive sideshow for the uninformed.

I do not get how this technology continues getting press.

R:

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