Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 8
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/technology/taiw...
The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.
By Tripp Mickle
Tripp Mickle reviewed documents, visited chip plants and interviewed more than 60 people across the government and the tech industry.
The New York Times, Feb. 24, 2026
Federal officials have for years tried to wean Silicon Valley from its dependence on Taiwan, an island democracy roughly the size of Maryland that makes 90 percent of the world’s high-end computer chips.
In secret briefings held in Washington and Silicon Valley, national security officials warned executives from companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm that China was making plans to retake Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the officials said, could choke the supply of computer chips made on the island and bring the U.S. tech industry to its knees…
Those worries, drawn into focus by recent live-fire drills conducted by the Chinese military in waters surrounding Taiwan, have prompted dire warnings from White House officials…
A confidential report commissioned in 2022 by the Semiconductor Industry Association for its members, which include the largest U.S. chip companies, said cutting the supply of chips from Taiwan would lead to the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. economic output would plunge 11 percent, twice as much as the 2008 recession. … [end quote]
TSMC is a foundry that does work that no other company can do at this time. Their chips are cheaper than comparable chips from the U.S. would be (even if they could be made here, which they can’t at this point). Electronics manufacturers won’t switch to more expensive chips so there’s no incentive to build expensive fabs in the U.S. It’s a Catch-22.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/inside-apples-push-to-bui...
Inside Apple’s Push to Build an All-American Chip
The iPhone maker wants more supply based in U.S., which remains years behind Asia
By Rolfe Winkler, The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 23, 2026
…
The world’s largest chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, is building the chip manufacturing site in Phoenix, planning to spend $165 billion to build six chip plants and more, making it one of the largest construction projects in the U.S.
Under pressure from the Trump administration, Apple vowed last year to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over four years. Much of that spending isn’t related to manufacturing. It counts all spending in the U.S. including salaries for tens of thousands of Apple employees and retail staff…
The effort is modest relative to the global chip supply chain. And Apple’s purchases from the factory represent a small percentage of its total demand for chips, the key components that power its devices… [end quote]
China wants to take over Taiwan. Period. It’s been one of their primary goals since the KMT government fled there after World War 2.
Hopefully, the Chinese will take over Taiwan without sparking World War 3 and without crashing the world economy. I think they are too smart to cut off their nose to spite their face, but who knows?
Wendy
No. of Recommendations: 0
China wants to take over Taiwan. Period.
Pretty easy to solve.
Tell Spankee he won't be able to get McD or KFC (and lots more stuff) if China gets Taiwan.
43 US aircraft carrier battle groups around Taiwan INSTANTLY !!
WALLS around Taiwan. And lots more.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Along with their control of rare earth metals, it would remove all trade-oriented leverage from the card game with the US as we couldn't stand the pain of the big squeeze.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 0
The President will order Commodore Perry to sail from Japan with orders to open up China.
No. of Recommendations: 0
a blockade by china could be easily matched stopping energy from the middle east.
whatever ya think, china is hugely import dependent on energy and food for the masses. and these could be done many oceans from the china mainland...china has subs but their blue navy is a joke.
given similar irrationality by xi and trump, they may believe greenland and tw are their's to trade.
just a gop\MAGA fantasy for peace.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Rare earth metals are not rare. They are better described as sparse. Collecting them from the tailings of bauxite after aluminum is extracted, is energy intense. China can do this because they have a power grid that isn't last century.
We can't because we do. Our energy production and distribution has been farmed out to private enterprise and they have let us down bigly.
No. of Recommendations: 3
For what it's worth:
https://www.simplymac.com/tech/tsmc-arizona-plantTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, is rapidly transforming Arizona into a major global hub for advanced semiconductor production. With construction now underway on its third fabrication plant in north Phoenix, TSMC’s total U.S. investment has surged to an astonishing $165 billion—a sharp increase from the initially announced $12 billion in 2020.
TSMC’s U.S. operations began with plans for a single fab producing 5nm chips. Fast forward to 2025, and the company is now building three advanced fabs—each more sophisticated than the last:
Fab 1 (Operational): Began limited production of 4nm chips in 2024, serving major U.S. tech clients.
Fab 2 (Construction Complete): Will produce 3nm chips and aims to ramp up volume production by late 2026.
Fab 3 (Ground Broken April 2025): Scheduled to manufacture 2nm chips—currently among the world’s most advanced node technologies—by the end of the decade.
No. of Recommendations: 6
We can't because we do. Our energy production and distribution has been farmed out to private enterprise and they have let us down bigly.
Over a hundred years ago, it was normal for large plants to generate their own power. Large factories routinely had their own coal fired power plants. A number of paper mills I have been in, were on rivers, and operated their own hydropower plants. Pulp mills burn the chemicals, and lignin, that are left, after separating the wood fibers, in boilers to generate power and process steam. The proposal last night was for each AI data center to have it's own power plant, because, like in pre WWI cities, the metro grid is not strong enough to supply the plant.
The problem often voiced with EVs was the general grid does not have capacity to recharge that many cars. Powering a plant is much easier, because the current draw is concentrated.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 9
The problem often voiced with EVs was the general grid does not have capacity to recharge that many cars.
Old wives tale, or rather disinformation spread by Detroit and/or the petroleum industry.
Biggest demand for electricity is morning before 9am, and afternoon after 4pm. The time when the grid has unused capacity is overnight and late-morning to early-afternoon.
As it turns out, the two periods most like to be used for EV charging are 1) overnight, for people with home charging, and 2) daytime, for people charging at commercial stations.
Will it be an absolutely perfect inverse fit? Probably not, but the issue of EV charging over stressing the grid is wildly exaggerated.
No. of Recommendations: 0
neither side can quickly nor cheaply ramp up their weaknesses.
that is exactly why a tw blockade can be countered by a energy&food blockade of china, and can be done oceans away with some (fewer) allies joining in as convenient.
but this sort (any sort) of logic may not be amenable to trump and xi forever.
trump is in more risk of being imprisoned than xi is of being purged, but both are motivated to extend their reign regardless of what any leadership process states\intends.
wag the dog, gop episode 4.
No. of Recommendations: 0
neither side can quickly nor cheaply ramp up their weaknesses.
The pigs and the humans at the table playing cards looked the same to the other animals looking in through the window.
No. of Recommendations: 5
that is exactly why a tw blockade can be countered by a energy&food blockade of china
Seriously? Taiwan is almost entirely dependent on imports for food. China is 80% self sufficient, and what is does import is fungible. It’s even more lopsided with energy. Taiwan has to import 98% of its energy, while China imports only 15 to 20%, depending on which source you choose to believe.
Taiwan is an island. China is connected by land mass to 14 other countries. Very different circumstances.
No. of Recommendations: 0
you misunderstand. of course tw is vulnerable, but so is china.
china may have a plan to counter a blockade, but so will others.
from duck ai :
China heavily relies on seaborne imports for energy, particularly crude oil and liquefied natural gas, to meet its growing energy demands. For food, China also imports significant quantities via maritime routes, although specific details on food imports are not provided in the available sources.
iea.org bakerinstitute.org
No. of Recommendations: 0
Well of course. Nobody gets out of a war unscathed, even the victor. It’s that the difference in vulnerability is HUGE. Taiwan shuts down in days without energy imports. China could last for weeks, maybe months.
Taiwan would run out of food in a week. China, not so much.
Nobody is saying there aren’t risks on both sides, there are. But it’s like Cuba trying to take on the US. Not a close fight. Even Jack Reacher would lose this one.
No. of Recommendations: 0
again, when a side has prepared for decades, there are contingencies and cost escalates.
ukraine was not taken in 3 days by a giant nemesis, and has less allies if for no other reason than america did not need their ag goods.
could trump abandon tw (or his own family) under certain circumstances? of course.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Well of course. Nobody gets out of a war unscathed, even the victor. It’s that the difference in vulnerability is HUGE. Taiwan shuts down in days without energy imports. China could last for weeks, maybe months.
Taiwan would run out of food in a week. China, not so much.
Nobody is saying there aren’t risks on both sides, there are. But it’s like Cuba trying to take on the US.
Well, except the West cares a lot more about what happens in Taiwan more than Cuba's allies care about what happens to the Cuban government.
China might try to blockade Taiwan. But it's extremely unlikely that they would prevent a U.S. flagged ship delivering food or energy from reaching the island. It's the same reason why the Soviets didn't shoot down the planes carrying out the Berlin Airlift - they didn't want to provoke a war between the two superpowers by shooting down unarmed planes delivering non-military supplies.
That's not happening with Cuba, because China isn't trying to send a legal, unsanctioned tanker of oil to Cuba. They weren't sending oil to Cuba before the blockade - only Mexico and Venezuela did. They don't care enough to start doing it now. If they did send a Chinese tanker of oil to Cuba, the U.S. would have to think really long and hard about whether they wanted to intercept it, in a way we don't worry too much about Venezuelan tankers. And with Mexico, we've basically pressured them to not even try to supply oil to Cuba. We don't have to deal with the issue of what happens if we try to stop the vessels of a powerful country.
That's very different from Taiwan. The U.S. is one of Taiwan's largest oil providers. We are their largest agricultural provider. They are our fourth largest trading partners in the world, behind only Mexico, Canada, and China itself. An effective Chinese blockade would present square on a conflict with a global superpower in a way that Cuba does not.
