No. of Recommendations: 2
Thanks for posting your analysis there Manlobbi. Much appreciated.
'7 times cash flow, with cash flow having grown 15% the last 5 years: It feels like being back in the 1950s with Ben Graham getting excited nearby.'
When you say 7 times cash flow: what does that broadly include and exclude?
Presumably that is excluding capex?
SBC excluded?
7x, 8X, 9x: doesn't matter much anyway compared to 22X if it was a US firm.
It certainly is better value than US big tech and I would expect it to do well if purchased at current prices over the next 10 years.
Like many others, I am under water on this one but plan to hold all my investments until the bitter end. We will see how it plays out. I don't mind having some money in China in this uncertain western world from a diversification perspective.
Expanding government debt service and the risk of strangers becoming less enthusiastic about buying US treasuries and U.K. gilts, which would result in continued money printing, is a risk and maybe some money in China is not a bad thing.
I generally take my lead from Buffett and am about 80% Berkshire and therefore betting heavily on the US. But a little Alibaba and Tencent helps me sleep at night, particularly when they are statistically cheap and arguably very strong businesses.
Best wishes
EVBigMacMeal
