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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: Anonymous   😊 😞
Number: of 3958 
Subject: Mr. Timing vs. Mr. Selection
Date: 07/14/2023 10:36 PM
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Author: elann ✹🐝 GOLD
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 3958 
Subject: Re: Mr. Timing vs. Mr. Selection
Date: 07/14/2023 10:44 PM
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Mark Boucher in his book "The Hedge Fund Edge" ... reports the results of a contest "between Mr. Timing and Mr. Selection. Mr. Timing was prescient and picked the best day of the year to buy the S&P and sold on the best possible day that year. Mr. Selection, on the other hand, bought the very best stock for the year on January 2nd and sold on the last trading day of the year."

Who do you think wins the contest?

Duh!

In any given year, the largest increase for the index from bottom to top is barely more than 50%. And in any given year there is at least one stock, and probably many more, that appreciate more than 100%.

It's hard to imagine a more contrived and meaningless "contest".

Elan
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Author: JohnIII ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 3958 
Subject: Re: Mr. Timing vs. Mr. Selection
Date: 07/15/2023 12:18 PM
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You are correct. Mr. Selection wins.

I'd argue Thor can beat up Hulk. It's a fun conversation, but neither is real.

John
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Author: rayvt ✧🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 3958 
Subject: Re: Mr. Timing vs. Mr. Selection
Date: 07/15/2023 7:13 PM
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Mr. Selection simply invested 100 percent of his funds in the top-performing market sector each year.

Easy to do when you can make the selection in the future after the results are known. Not so easy to do when you don't have a time machine.

So, I agree, stupid comparison.
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