Post #91 by Said on the US Policy board

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zee: Many Wall Street firms attempt to predict how the S&P 500 will do in a year. At the start of 2022 they all predicted a positive return on the year. Historical precedent was saying the opposite. It predicted a twenty to thirty percent drop in the major indexes.

"Historical precedent"? At the turn of the year there was still an even directly before ongoing bull market. How can history tell when such ends?

What I could understand: If such an extreme long bull comes to an end and it's clear(!) we are finally in a bear market that from history maybe one can deduce how long and how deep that bear will be.

But when everything just directly(!) until a point X in time is upwards: How then can history tell that the end is reached right now, at that point X?

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