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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks E / Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR)
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Author: LucidDreamer   😊 😞
Number: of 19 
Subject: Re: Anatomy of a Moon Shot...
Date: 10/23/24 5:19 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Bought my final shares today. Doesn't mean this won't drag out past the Q4 ER in Feb 2025, but feels like things are nearing a conclusion...

At least for this first round of acquisition talks. What I mean by that is they got the label, removed the RIPA, payers onboarding, and sales has continued to rise (if not as rapidly as we would prefer).

There is a current present value based on:
1. DSE and Otsuka milestones
2. Otsuka royalties and future DSE returning royalties
3. Tax loss carryover
4. Growing US business

So if you are a BP (Big Pharma) and you do not buy now, you risk:
1. future indications via Investor Day. Everyone loves the backup QB that isn't on the field. So the company will get more valuable via "potential" if investor day impresses.
2. US Sales inflecting upward as full payer coverage kicks in combined with the more expensive and injectable PCKS-9 sales getting increasingly cannibalized.

So pay a premium and start earning off investment now.
Or risk waiting and pay more later.

Either way, should be an interesting couple of weeks and an ER conf call I am very keen to dial into!

Dreamer
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This community has written 19 posts about Esperion Therapeutics. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Anatomy of a Moon Shot... · 11 recs · 2024
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