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Due to improving accumulation/buying behavior in the markets this week, my dashboard has swung to 'Optimistic' with a +3 rating. As it did at the top of the last 2 bear-market rallies before those Fed/market makers fights went the other way - so be careful.

Of note:

Nasdaq new highs / lows swung to bullish at the close Friday
The 26w/52 week MA indicators went bullish on S&P & small caps (IWM) - what some called 'the fourth Bearcatcher' back in the day
Bullish 10D/50D crossovers happened in the S&P and small caps (IWM)
short term indicators daily MACD and PAMA 5D swung to bullish.

WEATHERVANE (US MKT)		3		Optimistic
BEARS/TOP	BULLS/BOTTOM	SINCE/Last
Intermediate-Term				
BearCatcher	        Nasdaq NH/NL	        	Bull	1/13/23
BearCatcher	        SMA Slope	    Bear		4/29/22
BearCatcher	        99D/DBE	            Bear		5/24/22
	
Momentum, Int	        # 26 week highs	               		1/4/22
Momentum, Int      	DMI		                       	1/13/23
Momentum, Int-Term	10/50 Crossover	    Bear	Bull	12/16/22 (bearish on Naz)
Momentum, Int	        MACD Weekly	    Bear		12/23
Momentum, Int	        26W / 52W	                Bull	1/13/23
Breadth, midterm	PAMA Naz 50	        	Bull	1/6
Breadth, midterm	Naz Bullish %	    Bear		1/13/23
Breadth, midterm	S&P PAMA 200	        	Bull	1/13/23
Breadth Thrust	Breadth Thrust			
Correction Mode	>7% off last peak           Bear		1/14/22
Timing, Seasonal	MACD on RUT		        Bull	10/17/22
Interest Rates	        Corporate Bond Index	        Bull	11/25/22
			
Short Term	        Top Warning	1		
Momentum, ST	        MACD Daily	                 Bull	1/13/23
Breadth, short term	SP600 PAMA20	             	 Bull	1/6
Breadth, short term	PAMA5D %OFF 21dh			1/13/23

My personal interpretation: the market makers bought the bet that the Fed is about to slow the rate of interest rate increases soon. This post does not in anyway constitute advice.
PS if you read this far, Tom Bowley at EarningsBeats generally says avoid this upcoming week of the month for buys due to pre-options manipulation reasons. FWIW.

my dashboard has swung to 'Optimistic' with a +3 rating. As it did at the top of the last 2 bear-market rallies before those Fed/market makers fights went the other way - so be careful.

According to a thread a few weeks ago the CNN index (https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed#fng...) is not exactly in favour here. As I said last year every single time it got close to 75 a market top was reached (anybody interested click on "Timeline").

So just let me say after it continuously climbed it's now at 63 again, close to that "danger zone" --- and I am curious whether now or if it gets a bit higher that (market top) will be the case again.

The 26w/52 week MA indicators went bullish on S&P & small caps (IWM) - what some called 'the fourth Bearcatcher' back in the day


I expect I'm misunderstanding something, but from what I see the 26wk SMAs of both IWM and SPY clearly below the 52wk SMAs.

IWM https://schrts.co/jTZuFWiR

SPY https://schrts.co/mqtAktQz


Sorry if I'm being thick.

Baltassar

Not thick. Definitional difference. Openly, I'm having trouble finding @tpoto's original post of that approach. But essentially, it's
- if today is above the 26W MA OR the 26W MA is above the 52W MA, bullish
- if today is below the 26W MA AND the 26W MA is below the 52W MA, bearish

In sheets/Excel it's: =IF(H244>0,IF(OR(H5>average(H5:H135),average(H5:H135)>average(H136:H244)),"BULLISH","BEARISH")," - ")

In the interest of providing some answer... A similar approach from tpoto BITD is http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...

And I'll keep looking.

FC

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