Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 7
Last night just before midnight, Republicans released their new version of the omnibus budget reconciliation bill. It is a sign of just how unpopular this bill is that they released the new version just before midnight on a Friday night, a time that is the graveyard of news stories.
Over the course of today, the contours of the revised measure have become clearer. Democratic challenges and the Senate parliamentarian convinced Republican senators to remove policy provisions from the bill that either were especially incendiary or did not meet the rules for budget reconciliation bills. Those challenges preserved the Consumer Finance Protection Board, limited a rule that prevented states from regulating artificial intelligence, prevented the selling off of public lands, eliminated vouchers for religious schools, and so on.
Despite these changes, the final measure retains its original structure.
That structure tells us a lot about the world today’s Republican lawmakers envision. The centerpiece of the bill remains its extension of the 2017 tax cuts for wealthy Americans and corporations, making those tax cuts permanent. The tax structure in the measure funnels wealth from the poorest Americans to the top 1%.
According to Alyssa Fowers and Hannah Dormido of the Washington Post, the Senate slashed the apparent cost of the bill by using a new method to calculate the numbers. Under the traditional way of estimating the cost of a bill, the new measure would add $4.2 trillion to the national debt. But using the gimmick of ignoring the tax extensions by saying they are simply a continuation of policies already in place, the Senate claims the bill will cost $442 billion, just a tenth of what the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office calculates.
According to immigration scholar Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, the measure also provides an additional $45 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement to detain migrants, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion. It adds $14.4 billion for transportation and removal on top of the current annual budget of $750 million. It also adds $8 billion for new ICE hires and retention. Reichlin-Melnick notes that this budget will give ICE more money for detention than it gives the entire U.S. Bureau of Prisons.
The Department of Homeland Security reflected the heart of this budget today, when it posted on social media an image of four alligators wearing ICE hats—an apparent reference to the construction of a migrant detention facility in the Everglades in Florida—with the comment: “Coming soon!”
To offset some of the tax cuts in the measure, the Senate bill cuts $930 billion out of Medicaid—more than the House bill cut—and, according to Ron Wyden (D-OR), makes additional cuts to Medicare and the Affordable Care Act. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the measure will cause 11.8 million Americans to become uninsured, almost a million more than would have lost health insurance under the House version.
In Politico today, Meredith Lee Hill reported that “[e]very major health system in Louisiana is warning [House] Speaker Mike Johnson [R-LA] and the rest of the state’s congressional delegation that the Senate [Republicans’] planned Medicaid cuts ‘would be historic in their devastation.’” The Senate’s revised measure will hurt healthcare and undermine the state’s budget, they wrote. But “[t]hese economic consequences pale in comparison to the harm that will be caused to residents across the state, regardless of insurance status, who will no longer be able to get the care that they need.”
Tonight, fifty-one senators voted to advance the bill with forty-nine opposing it. Republicans Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky voted with the Democrats to stop the bill from moving forward. Tillis has been clear that he could not support the bill’s cuts to Medicaid. Immediately, Trump said he would back a primary challenger to Tillis, saying he would be “looking for someone who will properly represent the Great People of North Carolina.”
After forcing changes to the measure through challenges accepted by the Senate parliamentarian, Democrats tonight called out Republicans for releasing the new bill in the middle of last night and then trying to call a vote on it in the middle of tonight. They are demanding that the entire 940-page bill be read on the Senate floor.
As the Republican attempt to hide the budget reconciliation bill suggests, it is enormously unpopular.
In 1890, the Republicans forced through Congress a similarly unpopular measure: the McKinley Tariff, the law President Donald Trump has spoken of as a model for his economic policies. Like today’s budget reconciliation bill, the McKinley Tariff skewed the country’s economy even more strongly toward the very wealthy, putting more money in the pockets of the richest Americans at the expense of the poorest.
The McKinley Tariff passed in a chaotic congressional session in May 1890, with members shouting amendments, yelling objections, and talking over one another. All Democrats voted against the measure, and when it passed in the House, Republicans cheered and clapped at their victory. “You may rejoice now,” a Democrat yelled across the aisle, “but next November you’ll mourn.”
Democrats were right. In the November 1890 midterm elections, angry voters repudiated the Republican Party, giving the Democrats a two-to-one majority in the House and preserving Republican control of the Senate only because three Republican senators had voted against the tariff.
More than creating a bad midterm for Republicans, though, the fight over the McKinley Tariff hammered home to ordinary Americans that the system was rigged against them. Since the 1880s, Americans had seen the rise of extraordinarily wealthy industrialists who built palaces on New York’s Fifth Avenue like Mrs. Alva Vanderbilt’s, which cost more than $44 million in today’s dollars. There, in 1883, she threw a famous costume ball where 1,200 guests, dressed as birds and hornets as well as knights and famous queens and kings, including Marie Antoinette, used golden spoons at their $25,000 meal.
The popular press closely followed the ball and the social competition that followed it. To workers surviving on pennies and farmers gouged by railroads, such lavish displays of wealth seemed not just outrageous but a sign that something had gone badly wrong in American society. Surely, they thought, a democratic government should not so obviously favor the wealthy.
The fight over the McKinley Tariff gave opponents proof that Congress was working for the rich. In the Alliance Summer of 1890, newspapers sprang up and speakers crisscrossed the plains reminding voters that the government was supposed to treat all interests equally. The famous farmers’ orator Mary Elizabeth Lease told audiences that “Wall Street owns the country…. It is no longer a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, but a government of Wall Street, by Wall Street, and for Wall Street.” She told farmers to “raise less corn and more hell.”
They did. In the 1890 elections, Alliance members backed Democrats who supported their cause, and they elected forty-four members of Congress, three senators, and four governors and gained control of eight state legislatures. Members of both parties listened to the developing anger over economic injustice and shared the fears of Alliance members that democracy was collapsing under an oligarchy of industrialists.
Their insistence that a democratic government should not favor any specific sector of society but should work for the good of all resonated with voters across parties, and lawmakers, especially younger ones eager to build a following, listened.
By 1902, President Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican, was leading the demand for fair government. He called for a “square deal” for everyone. The Boston Globe explained: “‘Justice for all alike—a square deal for every man, great or small, rich or poor,’ is the Roosevelt ideal to be attained by the framing and the administration of the law. And he would tell you that that means Mr. [J.P.] Morgan and Mr. [J.D.] Rockefeller as well as the poor fellow who cannot pay his rent.”
—
Notes:
https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-new...
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/27/c...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/us/politics/par...
https://itep.org/analysis-of-tax-provisions-in-sen...
https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/06/27/how-the-news...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/06/28...
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/28/c...
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61533
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/28/c...
W.A. Croffut, The Vanderbilts and the Story of Their Fortune (Chicago: Belford, Clarke & Company, 1886), pp. 190–197.
Boston Globe, March 26, 1883.
Boston Globe, August 27, 1902, p. 6.
X:
https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1939034194979455282
Bluesky:
repstansbury.bsky.social/post/3lspkhuknfc2o
reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3lsp64jee722u
murray.senate.gov/post/3lsoyvzdno22i
crampell.bsky.social/post/3lspsyhcuvs2c
No. of Recommendations: 0
LMAO@big Bastard Bill, That - is classic.
So let's see......
1.)He won in 2016 - against a formidable Hillary machine.
2.)After an insurrection, a Covid disaster ....he came back and won AGAIN in 2024---despite Harris being better funded and AHEAD in polls when it began.
So, 2 for 2.
Do "enlightened" people go MAGA and dig their heels in - OR do they look in mirror and ask why? how? and use the findings to not let it happen again?
Do "intelligent" "educated" people maybe, when they extol "democracy" accept that one some things - even a majority of their OWN voters have decided and that in a democracy, if it's not mass human rights violation---it's ok to maybe say "ok, we lost on that one....let's go win where we can win now"
At that point, in a 50-50 tribal country - do the smart, tolerant, open minded ones merely continue to live amongst their own kind. Go to "No King!" or their latest meme rally -- and consort with each other, OR --do they venture out...and maybe turn a few voters - and win.
Finally --- Medicaid. ObamaCare. Thanks to Big Bastard (no, not the 34% of American babies that were forced to be that, I speak of the legislation).......RED voters and SWING voters in SWING states are going to get a rude awakening. Ok, let me put it in Club 401K parlance. Imagine if the 401K statement was RED. Gasp. All those fake paper investments that you people had zilch to do with went down in value. And suddenly it was down 20% AND you were told that this time, sacred "dollar cost averaging" and "tax loss harvesting" and all the other shit the pretend-rich hold up as shields.....were now not going to be allowed. In that, the 20% IS gone. in One day. Forever. With no chance of recovery.
To these voters --- the extra $XXX, the extra administrative bullshit ......is going to rock their worlds.
Question is. Those shouting "democracy!" "rights" --do they actually want to beat MAGA and if they do ---- will they do "Garcia!" "No Kings!" "He him they us"..........OR........
Will they ride this Big Bastard to major landslide victory ----a victory that all the Ebola and Egg Prices could never even fathom.
I won't assume.
I do know that for door #2 -- whether they want it or not, they;d have a huge, loud, action oriented supporter in this writer.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Do "enlightened" people go MAGA and dig their heels in - OR do they look in mirror and ask why? how? and use the findings to not let it happen again?
Democrats would be well served to change their losing strategies. Otherwise, they’re going to keep losing. That is self evidently true, Jedi.
Congrats. You get a cookie for stating the obvious again. You’re on a roll.
No. of Recommendations: 7
Democrats would be well served to change their losing strategies. Otherwise, they’re going to keep losing.
Important note: There was only one demographic Trump actually won, uneducated, low-income men.
Trump lost college educated women 61% to 37%.
Trump lost non college educated women 53% to 45%.
Trump lost college educated men 49% to 48%.
Trump won non college educated men 61% to 37%. (MAGA)
Throughout history, tyrants have understood that their major enemy is an educated citizenry.
Slaveholders prohibited the enslaved from learning to read. Nazis burned books. Putin and Xi censor books and the media.
Ignorance is the handmaiden of tyranny.
"Educate and inform the whole mass of the people. They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty." ~Thomas Jefferson
"I love the uneducated!" ~Donald Trump
No. of Recommendations: 1
I recently read that Herbert Hoover communicated at the highest grade level, while Trump is near the lowest (around 4th grade level).
This is reality. The population is not going to change, so the messaging is what has to change. I don't think the Dems lose any votes, but perhaps can gain some if they change the game a little here.
Alan
No. of Recommendations: 2
By 1902, President Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican, was leading the demand for fair government. He called for a “square deal” for everyone. The Boston Globe explained: “‘Justice for all alike—a square deal for every man, great or small, rich or poor,’ is the Roosevelt ideal to be attained by the framing and the administration of the law. And he would tell you that that means Mr. [J.P.] Morgan and Mr. [J.D.] Rockefeller as well as the poor fellow who cannot pay his rent.”
How quaint.
But remember this Gilded Age was the age of robber barons and the period in US history that Trump points to as the most glorious period in US history.
No. of Recommendations: 2
while Trump is near the lowest (around 4th grade level).
I keep saying that Trump sounds like a not-so-bright junior high kid, but 4th grade level is probably more accurate. It seems the MAGA cult likes the way he talks. Weird.
No. of Recommendations: 10
alan81: This is reality. The population is not going to change, so the messaging is what has to change. I don't think the Dems lose any votes, but perhaps can gain some if they change the game a little here.
Minority Leader Representative Hakeem Jeffries was making the rounds this morning but he wasn't talking about the devastation coming with the Big Ugly Bill, he was talking about New York's Mamdani: "'Globalizing the intifada' by way of example is not an acceptable phrasing. He's gonna have to clarify his position on that as he moves forward."
Umm, first, Mamdani never said "globalizing the intifada."
Second, Jeffries should have been come with a simple message: If Trump’s Big Ugly Bill passes, 1 in 4 nursing homes will shut down.
That's tens of thousands of vulnerable seniors displaced — no care, no beds, no meals, nowhere to go.
Plus, eleven million Americans will lose their healthcare. And those people will still need care, they'll just be getting it from a considerably more expensive alternative: emergency rooms.
That is, if their rural hospitals remain open.
Otherwise, they'll just get sicker and perhaps die.
So the rich can get richer.
Sorry, as long as Jeffries and Schumer are leading the democrats and take the bait on bullshit nonsense like Mamdani rather than providing simple, short messages about what Mad King Donald is doing to them, they'll just keep losing elections.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Do "enlightened" people go MAGA and dig their heels in - OR do they look in mirror and ask why? how? and use the findings to not let it happen again?
Democrats would be well served to change their losing strategies. Otherwise, they’re going to keep losing. That is self evidently true, Jedi.
Congrats. You get a cookie for stating the obvious again. You’re on a roll.
***
It isn't obvious - because Sheeple has opted to elect Trump twice now.
:) Haha -- rights, liberties, democracy.
Boom - i'm winning.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Public education and culture run by -- white liberals- has certainly made such an intelligent electorate.
Good job.
No. of Recommendations: 1
but perhaps can gain some if they change the game a little here.
More than a little change is required.
No. of Recommendations: 4
I taught 3rd and 4th grade for 11 years of my 37 years as a teacher. I did not have any students who were as incoherent as Trump, and that included some students with severe learning disabilities.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Trump does bear a striking resemblance to Biff Tannen.
