Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (9) |
Author: Munger_Disciple ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 22347 
Subject: Re: OT (Sorta) - Markel- any attraction?
Date: 09/29/26 12:00 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 1
A 75% chance of 45% outperformance should be worth something like 33%

Your calculation is incorrect. You need to take into account the 25% chance that BRK outperforms MKL and multply that by the amount of outperfomance of BRK in that case. You then need to subtract it from the 33%.

In other words expected out-performace of MKL is lower than the 33% you quote. For example if in the 25% chance that BRK outperforms by 20%, then expecte outperformance of MKL = 33%-5% = 28%.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to Munger_Disciple here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,850 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (9) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community