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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 48466 
Subject: Re: Why the border bill will fail
Date: 02/08/2024 3:56 PM
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That was my point. By supporting Ukraine (a democracy) against Russia (a dictatorship) we lessen the chances of further war. The Ukrainians are depleting his resources, but he still has a lot of resources and industry. If he finishes with Ukraine, who's next? Poland? They are certainly worried about that, based on how much aid they are sending to Ukraine.

All true - but the geopolitical importance of Ukraine is far more complicated than that.

Russia's interest in Ukraine is shaped by the geography of the region and the overwhelming value of having warm-water ports. Most of Russia is separated from most of the world by mountain ranges - the Urals and the Caucusus. The Urals separate eastern Russia from Europe, while the Caucuses are a barrier between Russia and the Middle East. But the rest of western Russia is easily accessible via land through the Great European Plain, which is a mountain-free region from the Urals all the way to France. So while eastern Russia is easily defended from Europe, western Russia (including Moscow) is not. So Russia is keenly interested in maintaining buffer states between it and Europe.

But perhaps more importantly, Russia lacks a western warm-water port. Which is why Russian rules back to Catherine the Great have fought for (and annexed) areas along the Black sea for the last three centuries and especially Crimea. Sure, they have access to the Sea of Azov - but the lengthy Kerch Strait separating it from the Black Sea is a serious defensive liability if another power holds the Crimean side. That's why Russia is intensely interested in Georgia as well, BTW, but Georgia's Black Sea ports start bumping into the northwestern end of the Caucuses range which makes them less valuable (both militarily and for commerce) than Sevastopol. But even Sevastopol has significant strategic vulnerabilities because Crimea is separated from Russia proper by the Kerch, so Russia desperately wants to maintain a territorial "land bridge" through Donbas along the southeastern part of Ukraine to Crimea, south of the Dnipr.

So seizing a portion of Ukraine would enormously increase Russia's ability to project power and gain commercial influence into the Black Sea - and ultimately into the Med. Being able to have a greater footprint in the Black Sea gives Russia vastly more leverage with Turkey, both commercially (opening up more trading opportunities) and militarily (exposing Turkey to more direct naval power from Russia). Annexing the area south of the Dnipr from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula would result in an enormous strategic advantage to Russia. Blocking them from getting that is of paramount importance to Europe.
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