Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |
Author: WendyBG ✶x2☼  😊 😞
Number: of 4581 
Subject: Already discussing TBTF AI
Date: 09/26/26 1:50 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 4
nytimes.com - AI bubble banking crisis too big to fail


What Happens if the A.I. Bubble Bursts

By Bethany McLean, The New York Times, Sept. 26, 2026

It was about a year ago that Sarah Friar, the chief financial officer of OpenAI, said one way the company might sustain its current financial high-wire act was with a “backstop” or “guarantee” — as in, a government guarantee — “that allows the financing to happen.” Almost at the same time, Sam Altman, the company’s chief executive, said, “Given the magnitude of what I expect A.I.’s economic impact to look like,” the government should serve the role of “insurer of last resort.” They qualified those comments, but still, the gist seemed to be that the industry The Wall Street Journal calls “the biggest economic bet in U.S. history” is so important to the nation that if it needs more funding, taxpayers should be on the hook.

Another way to put it is that the government should regard artificial intelligence the same way it regarded the banks in the 2008 financial crisis: too big to fail...

The A.I. boom is far larger than the boom in subprime mortgages that set off the 2008 crisis. A.I.-related spending accounts for about half the growth in the U.S. gross domestic product, by some estimates. The vast majority of the $33 trillion in market value the S&P 500 has gained since late 2022 has come from spending linked to A.I. companies...

A.I. investment, though bigger than subprime mortgages in 2008, hasn’t infiltrated the banking system in the same way. ...

It’s hard to imagine the nation would accept a deal like the one that emerged in 2008, which prioritized the balance sheets of the investor class at the expense of everyone else — especially given the sums that would be required and the scale of our national debt...
[end quote]

The history of technology is littered with the corpses of failed companies that were cutting-edge in their day. And no technology has the potential to create its own rapid obsolescence than AI.

No company should be “too big to fail.” Failure is one of the essential building blocks of capitalism. All technologies experience an “S” shaped progress of invention, adoption, stabilization, competition and price-cutting. AI is even more vulnerable than semiconductor memory chips.

Even the suggestion of taxpayers bailing out AI tech bros should be met with a “NO F’'‘N’ WAY!!!” and a big smack to the head for even suggesting such a ridiculous thing. Clearly, it’s not too early to start.

Wendy

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to WendyBG here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,571 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community