When reading posts, there are yellow stars against the names of the most respected Shrewds. The number of points in the star, starting at 3, represents the Shrewd'm-Star rating. This number is the average recommendation that the author received over the last 12 months.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
No. of Recommendations: 33
No. of Recommendations: 21
Is the end near?
Actually the cartoon character ran off the cliff a while ago. He just hasn't looked down yet, so party like it's 1999. Cheer up!
The question about how Berkshire can deploy $300bn is silly. Heck, the market cap of MSFT+META+GOOG were up more than that ($380bn) in a single day yesterday. Chump change.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 8
"The orange idiot has just fired the commissioner of the BLS...
Why was this posted here? There is a political board for this crap. ☺️
No. of Recommendations: 34
From The Next Jobs Report In August:
"Under the incredible leadership of President Trump, the economy is doing amazing, it's total fire!
It’s the hottest economy right now! It's like, teenage girl HOT!
We are at 100% employment!
Workers are making more money than they ever dreamed possible.
Grown men with tears in their eyes are expressing thanks to our Dear Leader!" ~BLS
No. of Recommendations: 9
The orange idiot has just fired the commissioner of the BLS because he didn’t like the latest jobs report.
If only things had gone differently, we could have had the dumbest douche bag president on the planet and an even dumber VP (if that’s possible).
1)But at least the border would be wide open…with drug dealers, rapists and child traffickers flowing into our country.
2)men who couldn’t make the grade against the other men could be beating the crap out of all the young women throughout our country.
3)tampons in every 4th grade boys bathrooms.
Awe, what could have been! We can dream.
PS, I almost forgot…instead of those nasty bombs we could have just shipped pallets of cash to Iran.
No. of Recommendations: 5
While I don't agree with the firing, the issue is not the poor July numbers. It is the large restatements for May & June. Trump likely feels if the original reported numbers were more accurate then the Fed would be more inclined to have lowered rates. Of course this may not be true, but the restatements were large and in the same direction. I just don't know who owns the numbers for accuracy? But it may not be unreasonable that it is the person at the top of the department.
No. of Recommendations: 47
"While I don't agree with the firing, the issue is not the poor July numbers. It is the large restatements for May & June. Trump likely feels if the original reported numbers were more accurate then the Fed would be more inclined to have lowered rates. Of course this may not be true, but the restatements were large and in the same direction. I just don't know who owns the numbers for accuracy? But it may not be unreasonable that it is the person at the top of the department."
This represents a factual misunderstanding of how and why the BLS reports job numbers and later revises them.
Initial job report numbers are always preliminary. The economy is too large and complex to get accurate job numbers so quickly. So instead they report what they can initially and revisions are always announced to a set schedule later. Then as more and better data comes in the numbers are revised and released according to the schedule. This has been going on for years. It is nothing new and there is nothing nefarious or incompetent about the process. It should be noted that there were some rather large revisions in the last few months of the previous administration as well.
The alternative is to wait longer to report more accurate job numbers.
Conservative news outlets have been taking advantage of the fact that their viewers do not understand how job numbers are reported in order to make it sound like the numbers are being manipulated.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Awe, what could have been! We can dream.
People always forget. I am astonished that smart people like those on the BRK board also forget.
"The standard is not perfection; the standard is the alternative."
No. of Recommendations: 15
Ahhh the old “the alternative is worse” defense. A sure sign that what IS is indefensible and reprehensible to the core.
No. of Recommendations: 31
While I don't agree with the firing, the issue is not the poor July numbers. It is the large restatements for May & June. Trump likely feels if the original reported numbers were more accurate then the Fed would be more inclined to have lowered rates. Of course this may not be true, but the restatements were large and in the same direction. I just don't know who owns the numbers for accuracy? But it may not be unreasonable that it is the person at the top of the department.
First, the BLS releases multiple employment metrics. In addition to the jobs report, it publishes six different measures of unemployment. The Fed has access to all of these, along with its own data, when making interest rate decisions.
Second, large data revisions are, in fact, quite common, especially since the 2000s, as the U.S. economy has become increasingly service oriented. Unfortunately, service based sectors are harder to measure accurately, which has led to more frequent and more substantial revisions to both GDP and employment figures over time. This is not unique to the U.S. as similar patterns are observed in Britain as well. There is nothing nefarious or conspiratorial about it.
Finally, who owns the numbers for accuracy? Well, who determines BLS staffing levels? Who proposed cutting the BLS budget by 8%, forcing the agency to reduce sample sizes and data qualities of the job reports? That person owns the accuracy.
No. of Recommendations: 28
with drug dealers, rapists and child traffickers flowing into our country.
Oh yeah, we need to keep our kids safe. wWhere are the Epstein files?
No. of Recommendations: 0
Is monthly tax receipt data useful for this kind of thing? At least that is a definite number (I assume!). Obviously there will be changes since taxes are being changed by the new president, but even so, I would expect the numbers to give a useful guide on the economy.
SA
No. of Recommendations: 13
Is monthly tax receipt data useful for this kind of thing? At least that is a definite number (I assume!). Obviously there will be changes since taxes are being changed by the new president, but even so, I would expect the numbers to give a useful guide on the economy.Yes, monthly payroll tax collection is very useful in this regard and nobody covers it better than Bill (wabuffo). You can't chain it together sequentially, you have to compare payroll tax receipts to the same week the prior year. There are all kinds of distortions otherwise - end of year bonus season hits in January, high earners start out paying towards social security but hit their limit mid-year at some point. You can slice and dice the data to see government jobs only (looking for DOGE cuts to start materializing, etc).
Here is a link to twitter where Bill posts his payroll tax receipt analysis. He updates fairly often. Still very healthy compared to the narrative this week FWIW.
https://x.com/wabuffo/status/1949924807081914543
