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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: rrr12345   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/04/2025 10:42 PM
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Painful day for BRK.B. How far will it fall? Pessimist me, I'm thinking that BRK.B will test its January low at 1.46x BV, and possibly lower. BRK.B hit 1.26x BV in 2022 when interest rates spiked, and it hit 1.01x BV in 2022 when Covid hit. The turmoil caused by the administration's tariffs is a big deal, on the order of these 2022 and 2020 shocks.
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Author: rrr12345   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/04/2025 11:59 PM
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That should be 2020 for Covid.
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Author: knighttof3   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 12:42 AM
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Pessimist me, I'm thinking that BRK.B will test its January low at 1.46x BV

I think Jim has addressed this, and if I remember correctly, 1.4 is a B/V that is a decent time to buy, regardless of the intrinsic value or any other high-falutin' notions.
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Author: newfydog   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 1:08 AM
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Surely the buybacks will kick in before it gets too low. They wouldn't miss an opportunity to deploy at least some of that cash pile.
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Author: deucetoace   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 4:01 AM
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I thought buybacks were only being made as there was no better use for the money. continued market falls will bring opportunities elsewhere.
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Author: VIIIandXX   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 7:04 AM
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I thought buybacks were only being made as there was no better use for the money. continued market falls will bring opportunities elsewhere.

Yes, but these 3-week lows on brk are looking very juicy! Warren probably has the elephant gun by his bedside right now.
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Author: EVBigMacMeal   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 9:24 AM
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Of course no one knows, but everyone wants to know.

Take a simple idea and take it seriously. This is how it looks to me in my simple mind.

This is a major policy error. Back of an envelope decision by an arrogant overlord. The result will be a global recession. This is a major problem for the following reasons:

The public finances are in a very poor condition. We are swimming towards the vortex.
Consumers are going to struggle.
Job losses and major life changes for many.
Inflation will come back.
Central banks will have a major problem dealing with a stagnation and inflation. What can they do?
Equities prices are not cheap and can fall a lot. Markets have had casino like characteristics of late and that can unwind fast and painfully.
If true fear takes hold in the economy and equity markets, we could have a major market decline. Berkshire is way more protected than other firms for the reasons we all know.

If we get a 1970s type crash, of 50%+ proportions for the general US market, Berkshire can go down with it but maybe only by half as much. In 2007/08 Berkshire’s share price fell almost as much as the market but there were those equity options Buffett had bought which spooked the market in the short term.

This time, Berkshire is in a much stronger position with its cash and it’s cash-flowing operating companies and a smaller equity portfolio that will be marked down with the general market.

This does not look like a buy the dip moment. It looks more like everything will be cheaper three years from now. Personally, I will find it really hard not to start buying too early. But I will keep reminding myself that I’m older and might need the cash I have to live on during difficult times. I got lucky recently thanks to Buffett and this board. I’m prepared this time.

I hope I can stay with a large cash percentage until:

1. Berkshire gets to 1.1 book.

2. FTSE 100 drops from current 11 PE and 4% dividend yield to 8 PE.

3. Some of the individual companies I think I know quite well and which are already good value, drop 30% or more. Companies I’d be happy to hold for decades.

It’s a very sad time for a lot of people who are going to be impacted. We are already starting to see the impacts around the world. Buckle up and don’t buy the dip is my plan.

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Author: hclasvegas   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 9:49 AM
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" I hope I can stay with a large cash percentage until:

1. Berkshire gets to 1.1 book."

For brkb to get back to 1.1xs BV, Buffett might spend 100 Billion on buybacks before we get there.
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Author: VIIIandXX   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 10:25 AM
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This is a major policy error. Back of an envelope decision by an arrogant overlord. The result will be a global recession. This is a major problem for the following reasons:

Back of the envelope? He’s been talking about it publicly for 40 years!! He campaigned and won the popular vote talking nonstop about it for the last 8 years. Whether it works or not I have no clue…but neither do you. Sucking our thumb and printing money will definitely NOT work.
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Author: Lear 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 10:25 AM
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A price at or around 25th percentile would give you a price sub $400. It was sub $400 around 12 months ago.

WEB did a remarkable job mitigating risk at the right time (AAPL and BAC sales), but my money is on the mood around BRK turning sour before things rebound. If there's no Q2 market rebound, we'll very likely see 30 billion plus in stock portfolio losses, and a general bearish lens being used to value the operating companies (e.g., if rail goes, so goes the deemed value of BNSF).

A -7% drop also doesn't feel like a port in the storm to money looking for safety. And that's only Day 2 of this mess.

Maybe this all resolves but if it doesn't I think (and I don't think it will) we need to brace for sub 400 as very plausible from here. The premium to book isn't being paid for a cash pile.
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Author: Cardude   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 11:02 AM
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I sure hope that US CEOs are setting Trump‘s phone on fire right now, while he plays golf with the Saudis this weekend.

I think there is still somewhat of an off ramp if people put enough pressure on this administration to back off on a large portion of these over the top tariffs. I mean, the damage is still done because now all of our trading partners really hate us, but at least maybe it can be mitigated?
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 11:37 AM
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I think Jim has addressed this, and if I remember correctly, 1.4 is a B/V that is a decent time to buy, regardless of the intrinsic value or any other high-falutin' notions.

The 20 year average price-to-peak-book has been 1.396
So 1.4 is basically average, in these modern times. If you're buying at that level you're not obviously overpaying relative to a random day.

But bear in mid that fully 1/3 of the time price-to-peak-known-book has been below 1.343. That's a drop of another 18.1% from today's $493.54.
Certainly not a prediction, but absolutely something one should be aware is possible.

Not much of a drop yet. At today's multiple, price-to-peak book has been higher only 5.8% of the time since in the last 20 years.

Jim
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Author: EVBigMacMeal   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 11:38 AM
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I note what happened the last time it was tried and it’s seems likely it will be a negative again this time.

“The Smoot-Hawley Act triggered a "trade war" as other countries retaliated by imposing their own tariffs on American goods, leading to a sharp decline in international trade.
Economic Consequences:
The reduction in global trade exacerbated the economic downturn, contributing to the severity of the Great Depression.”

Anyway, who really knows what might happen. A lot of bad decisions have been made by western democracies over the past 30 odd years…voters vote for instant gratification…eventually the chickens come home. Hopefully it all works out but on the face of it, it looks like we were in trouble and are now going to make it worse, faster.

I just hope we can avoid, for another few decades, the kind of end game Charlie Munger described as inevitable - eventually: Greece, Rome, Weimar Germany etc etc…

There are so many variables with the current setup, as there always are, it is impossible to know how it plays out. You are 100% correct I don’t know what will happen. I’m just saying it does look seriously bad to me.
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Author: Texirish 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 1:00 PM
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Below is an excerpt from a private message I sent to a long term Berkshire friend:

What I'm hoping for may sound unfair and selfish. I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly, by both the economic outcomes of the foregoing and the losses of personal freedom. I want it to last long enough so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it. I want the lessons learned to be severe enough to be lasting.

I've prepared my extended family to be able to sustain ourselves through such a period. That's about all I'm capable of doing.


I see no other way to stop this madness.
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Author: Said   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 1:34 PM
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so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it. I want the lessons learned to be severe enough to be lasting

I understand it, but isn't this - only when its´s radical, when it has dramatic consequences - the same way of thinking that produces these results?

IF(!) the guy who causes them has altruistic motives then his thinking is "...I want the US to awaken ... the consequences of my actions must be severe enough to be lasting ... for the good of the American people".

Pol Pot, Hitler, Mao, they probably all thought similar: "My people are such dummies, are sleep-walking. They do not see, I must wake them up, with drastic measures."

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Author: AdrianC 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 1:44 PM
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For brkb to get back to 1.1xs BV, Buffett might spend 100 Billion on buybacks before we get there.

There's a Charlie quote I saved from 4/19/2020:

Charlie: "Warren wants to keep Berkshire safe for people who have 90% of their net worth invested in it. We're always going to be on the safe side. That doesn't mean we couldn't do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically, we will be fairly conservative. And we'll emerge on the other side very strong."

And I appended to it: That's what we want.

Still true. I don't expect Buffett to do anything for quite a while. Too much uncertainty.
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Author: dealraker   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 4:24 PM
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Within our builders supply and millwork we met repeatedly after the election and unanimously (there's 3 of us on the investment committee but 5 are owners and all 5 of us met) decided to get to 50% cash as tax efficiently as we could. This was the most significant move we have made since deciding to sell all but one of our builders supply businesses over 30 years ago.

We got to 44.8% cash (short term treasuries) and that included selling about 1/3rd of our Berkshire stock. We were lucky to sell all we sold at very solid prices before the plunges started, on pretty significant up days.

This decision isn't one where we expected anything like what has happened, it is a decision based on much longer term thinking. The election just put us in super-charged mode. Every employee we have is a supporter of the current administration and we love them to death. All of them assume completely too that we support the administration. We do not speak of our beliefs whatsoever in our businesses.

Life....great if you can stand it!
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Author: VIIIandXX   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 4:41 PM
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This decision isn't one where we expected anything like what has happened, it is a decision based on much longer term thinking.

You didn’t see this coming??? Amazing! I’m sure you’re holding tight on all those shares from your dad’s inheritance. Looking forward to hearing that whole story for the umpteenth time 😊.
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Author: sutton   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/05/2025 9:41 PM
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The public finances are in a very poor condition. We are swimming towards the vortex.

Family circumstances required me to drive 840 miles in the last 33 hours. At least it gave me time to muse.

One thought was: since we went off the gold standard, the US dollar has been backed by the "full faith and credit" of the United States (usually as one word: fulfaithncredit)

As you note, our credit has begun to be questioned (thus far mostly in furrowed brows and whispers, but) as the deficit has shot up, and while our legislators have repeatedly played chicken with a default.

Then there's the "faith" half of the formula. America's word has been good. As the saying goes, we will do the right thing, after trying everything else. Have faith in America.

Uh, maybe not. Not anymore.

So after the 'faith' and 'credit' parts have been lined out of fulfaithncredit...they're just pieces of paper. Perhaps we can dust off the phrase, Not worth a Continental.(1)

----------------

Another thought that occurred to me this afternoon: my grandparents were in their early 40s in the few months after Pearl Harbor. Thus, in early 1942 their parents were in their mid/late 60s, the age that I am now.

At that point, Japan had free reign over the Pacific. Hawaii and Australia were actively threatened; Fortress Singapore had fallen.

Plus, we were suddenly at war with Germany as well - the nation that had rapidly built up its military, infrastructure, economy and then abruptly conquered Poland, France, Belgium...all of Western Europe, basically. The English were just barely hanging on.

I think the world view of any reading and thinking members of my great-grandparents' generation at that time was probably qualitatively not too far from where we are on this board at the moment.

I'm thinking at that time my great-grandpa Walter might have summed up his views on what was going to happen in the next few years by using precisely the same words as one of Goofyhoofy's post on Shrewd'm last week: I have no fucking idea

-- sutton

(1) https://idiomorigins.org/origin/not-give-or-not-wo...
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Author: Baybrooke   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 2:18 AM
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What I'm hoping for may sound unfair and selfish. I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly, by both the economic outcomes of the foregoing and the losses of personal freedom. I want it to last long enough so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it. I want the lessons learned to be severe enough to be lasting. I've prepared my extended family to be able to sustain ourselves through such a period.

Unfair and selfish is an understatement. Wishing harm on others is more like cruel and malicious! It's also a bit arrogant to imply that others are too naive to realize, what you believe is true, unless they endure significant pain first.

To be clear, I don’t think anyone here is cruel, malicious, or arrogant. Everyone on this board is genuinely good-hearted, though apparently, darker thoughts can occasionally creep into our minds!

It's one thing for us middle-aged/old people to stew in our thoughts, but if we’re also going to influence family, especially the younger more impressionable members, I think it's important not to rob them of their natural optimism.

The US has the world’s deepest capital markets, vast energy and other natural resources, leadership in technology, top-tier universities, a culture that celebrates risk taking & entrepreneurship, not-too-bad demographics, etc. It's also uniquely anti-fragile to tyranny and dictatorship, because purely as a practical matter, it's not possible to subjugate a heavily armed (estimated 400 - 500 million civilian-owned firearms) population beyond a certain limit.

Against this incredible backdrop, we can expect a reasonably stable future of great abundance in every field led by an AI productivity boom.

I worry that we adults, while rightly concerned about current events, are not doing enough to help the next generation get excited about the future and realize that extraordinary opportunities, unthinkable even a few years ago, will be within their grasp. All they need to do is stay focused, work hard and get the right guidance.
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Author: oddhack   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 6:05 AM
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It's one thing for us middle-aged/old people to stew in our thoughts, but if we’re also going to influence family, especially the younger more impressionable members, I think it's important not to rob them of their natural optimism.

I don't have any younger family members, but I know a lot of people from my social dance scene in their 20s and 30s quite well, and "natural optimism" is absolutely not what I get from them. More "resigned cynicism", while struggling to find enough work to pay the rent in their cramped co-housing situation this month. Maybe you are referring to children who don't have to pay the rent, yet?
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Author: CrankyCharlie   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 7:09 AM
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What I'm hoping for may sound unfair and selfish. I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly, by both the economic outcomes of the foregoing and the losses of personal freedom. I want it to last long enough so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it. I want the lessons learned to be severe enough to be lasting. I've prepared my extended family to be able to sustain ourselves through such a period.


TDS>>>retard finder.
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Author: InParadise   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 9:30 AM
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It's one thing for us middle-aged/old people to stew in our thoughts, but if we’re also going to influence family, especially the younger more impressionable members, I think it's important not to rob them of their natural optimism.
...
I worry that we adults, while rightly concerned about current events, are not doing enough to help the next generation get excited about the future and realize that extraordinary opportunities, unthinkable even a few years ago, will be within their grasp. All they need to do is stay focused, work hard and get the right guidance.


While I appreciate the ease and desire for this ostrich like POV, said with respect, it leaves me wondering when was the last time you had a conversation with one of these naturally optimistic young adults? I say that because based on what I see with our kids, nephews and their friends, optimism is non-existent. In fact, according to my 27 YO nephew, Trump's support from that generation was largely due to the economic hardships they are enduring, and his friends sought change at any cost. This is the generation that largely has decided against having children, because they cannot see bringing them into this world. My nephew only voted against Trump because of environmental reasons.

Exactly how do you suggest getting excited about the future? I am trying to pave the way for our boys to survive the future and not get sent off to El Salvador or some other for profit prison. The mix of DH and my genetics has resulted in offspring that could be from just about anywhere in the world. I have insisted they at least have a picture of their passport on their phone, and DH actually carries his. In a country where justice is absent, there is no optimism, and the only hope seems to be that for escape.

IP
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 9:43 AM
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I want it to last long enough so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it.

They did. That's why Trump won both the electoral college and the popular vote.



I want the lessons learned to be severe enough to be lasting.

We will see. The recent special elections suggest that perhaps it will last.



I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly

So, "Human kindness is overflowing in you". ???
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Author: VIIIandXX   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 9:46 AM
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What I'm hoping for may sound unfair and selfish. I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly, by both the economic outcomes of the foregoing and the losses of personal freedom. I want it to last long enough so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it. I want the lessons learned to be severe enough to be lasting. I've prepared my extended family to be able to sustain ourselves through such a period.

I agree 100%. Wide open borders, persecution of your political enemies, main stream media that’s 100% propaganda, taxation of the citizens to line the pockets of the corrupt scum in power. Men who can’t compete with other men putting on a dress and beating women. Cutting off the genitals of 4th graders confused about their gender. Tampons in 4th grade boys rooms. How could a country continue like that?
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Author: PhoolishPhilip   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 9:54 AM
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And, to the penalty box. I truly cannot understand the hatred behind such discourse.
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Author: newfydog   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 12:38 PM
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I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly, by both the economic outcomes of the foregoing and the losses of personal freedom. I want it to last long enough so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it.

Harsh, but I have to agree with it. We call it "economic and political chemotherapy" in which the only way to cure the cancer is to bring the patient close to death. Regardless of your political or economic beliefs, it is very difficult to make a case that this administration is pursuing it's agenda in a thoughtful and competent manner.
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 3:26 PM
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And, to the penalty box. I truly cannot understand the hatred behind such discourse.

I'd encourage you not to, unless you need to for personal reaons.

I have studied the America right wing for more than a decade. Much like China, they are aware of their limitations and prefer to operate in the shadows because open conflict doesn't favor them. I've also studied similar, emergent dynamics in left wing groups that appear to be cleavage attacks by adversaries of the US. I believe they are a deliberate strategy by various allied domestic and foreign adversaries of a robust and strong American global presence.

I have blocked CrankyCharlie for obvious reasons before. NB CrankyCharlie: "retard" is a vulgar word that nice people don't use any more; it doesn't offend delicate minds, it is just repellant and makes others not want to associate with you. If you associate with people that use it freely and poison your thoughts enough to use it in anger, choose new and better associations. I've blocked a few other posters here from time to time. This is not because of their political beliefs. I enjoy sincere political discussion with divergent viewpoints of intelligent people, it is more because of the nature of rhetorical patterns certain groups ubiquitously employ.

I am currently not blocking a single poster here. I understand why one would - we are all human and need to manage and replenish our executive mental capacity. But "sunlight is the best disinfectant" has some validity and pushing back against shameful conduct is not wasted time. As I noted in a prior post - addiction to being angry is a critical pillar of the Trumpist movement. Look at another poster's angry list of grievances about transgendered people. This is cultivated hate in right wing media circles, exploiting very deep fears and biases in the human psyche. Good people can differ on this topic, but it can also easily be used to turn off critical thinking like a light switch, along with a number of other carefully cultivated wedge issues with careful framing that connects them to deep and fundamental human cognitive biases.

Berkshire Hathaway has flourished in America. It is American as apple pie, and our investments will not flourish if America doesn't. Anatomically, the healthiest heart in the world will die with the entire body if the liver fails.

We end up talking about politics here as Berkshire growth has compounded for so long that, as Buffett has repeatedly mentioned, BRK decoupled growth from the US economy is becoming increasingly difficult. BRK revenue is on its way to 2% of the US GDP.

I agree with other posters that we have experienced a fundamental societal disruption in the last 20 years. Unfortunately, the flip side of US productivity gains is that we are moving money from structurally poorer spenders to producers faster and more efficiently than ever. Financial policy changes have slowed the redistribution of that money from the powerful and wealthy, and the rate of concentration is accelerating with more cognitive power modeled in software. While not everyone observe it directly, they understand their pocketbooks and it is objectively harder to be optimistic about the future than it was in the past.

I have no real point in mentioning this than to get it off my chest. A small number of wealthy and powerful interests have allied with a small number of bigoted and hateful interests domestically, and they have decided to coordinate with the power structures of Russia and China rather than solve our differences in the existing American political process. Some of those groups believe they maintain advantages over they others, but most are incorrect about it. These are times that try people's souls...
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 4:14 PM
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Also, in case I need it later: 2e8145c64417288b4754f88a3e251abccf7a2d4c4fbb29e32b9cb864706d8209
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Author: Brickeye   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/06/2025 10:24 PM
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"I have no real point in mentioning this than to get it off my chest. A small number of wealthy and powerful interests have allied with a small number of bigoted and hateful interests domestically, and they have decided to coordinate with the power structures of Russia and China rather than solve our differences in the existing American political process. Some of those groups believe they maintain advantages over they others, but most are incorrect about it. These are times that try people's souls..."

What a wonderful post! Thanks for that......
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/07/2025 6:47 AM
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It's one thing for us middle-aged/old people to stew in our thoughts, but if we’re also going to influence family, especially the younger more impressionable members, I think it's important not to rob them of their natural optimism.

I am by nature an optimist, and I retain my glass-half-full stance on life.

However I see myself as the sort of fellow who is whistling a cheery tune and waving at the neighbours while out front filling sandbags because of the rising waters. No matter what one's age, one can do both : )

Jim
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Author: sutton   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/07/2025 1:43 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 14
I am by nature an optimist, and I retain my glass-half-full stance on life.

However I see myself as the sort of fellow who is whistling a cheery tune and waving at the neighbours while out front filling sandbags


I feel the same way.

While not quite obsessively (say, six times a week), I go over the State of the Lifeboat:

- no debt
- of the investable capital:
- WEB looks after 55-60% (a quarter of which is in Treasuries, last I heard)
- individual Treasuries 25%, ranging 3 mo to five years
- various international funds around 12%
- personal spending scalable to meet market shocks, but current default around 4.5%, going to around 3-3.5% when SS kicks in in a few years
- we can stay this side of the gate for weeks if necessary, sufficient in water/food/electricity/septic - as I wasn't going to rely on FEMA putting this area at the top of the list, even back when there was a FEMA to putatively rely upon (there are literal sandbags, already full, in the garage. We're not *that* far above the 500 year flood plain. Besides, the dam upstream has no recent inspection report)

Leaving for greener shores a la Jim no longer reasonable for health/family/grandchildren reasons (although Grandpa sutton born in Canada, should they establish a Right of Return <not holding my breath on this one>)

But, y'know, the rest of the genealogy literally goes back to 17th century Virginia & Pennsylvanis, including ggggg etcetera grandparents at Valley Forge (all three musters - the guy stuck it out the entire winter), the Civil War (extensive on both sides, including Gettysburg), Grandpa sutton was gassed @ St Mihiel; Dad's citation for bravery at Kwajalein, signed by Admiral Nimitz, is up on the wall).

They will pry the Consitution out of my cold, dead hands.

Open for constructive suggestions (as long as they don't contain the word 'tontine', Jim :) )

Hope I didn't stray too far from the Berkshire question.

Executive summary: holding tight, and putting my faith in WEB until that seems no longer quite as sensible.

-- sutton

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Author: abromber   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/08/2025 1:04 PM
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"Back of the envelope? He’s been talking about it publicly for 40 years!!"

Actually not. He was singing a very different tune back then. Here is a clip from 40 years ago. Judge for yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZ5fC2gfyKM

abromber
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Author: VIIIandXX   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/08/2025 2:04 PM
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Sounds the same to me.

https://youtu.be/SEPs17_AkTI?si=fsW16KfNjlq7ZmB0
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Author: VIIIandXX   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 04/08/2025 2:13 PM
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Sounds the same to me.

https://youtu.be/SEPs17_AkTI?si=fsW16KfNjlq7ZmB0


My bad, this was only 37 years ago. And Oprah loved the orange man back then. All those stupid shows couldn’t book him enough!
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Author: BreckHutHigh   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/15/2025 1:29 AM
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TexIrish wrote:

"Below is an excerpt from a private message I sent to a long term Berkshire friend:

What I'm hoping for may sound unfair and selfish. I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly, by both the economic outcomes of the foregoing and the losses of personal freedom. I want it to last long enough so they will awaken to the reality of the results of the last election and take steps to reverse it. I want the lessons learned to be severe enough to be lasting.

I've prepared my extended family to be able to sustain ourselves through such a period. That's about all I'm capable of doing.

I see no other way to stop this madness."


Imagine someone wanting people to be hurt, and hurt badly... this is TDS taken to the extreme.
Maybe you should burn vandalize a Tesla or burn down a dealership to vent your anger..

Meanwhile Trump teaching the world about the "Art of the Deal". Creating more jobs for Americans.

Trump Cites $600 Billion in Saudi Deals
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/world/middleeas...

Boeing, GE Aerospace Get Qatar Airways Order After Saudi AI Tech Deals
The order will support 154,000 U.S. jobs annually, White House says
https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/boeing-ge-ae...

And brokering peace across the globe:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-meets-...







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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/15/2025 5:22 PM
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regardless of the sheer volume of MAGA propaganda, financial impact will be clear to all low income citizens.
dupes gonna dupe, and even RFK cant fake a cure.

https://kyla.substack.com/p/wweconomics-kayfabe-an...
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Author: Goofyhoofy 🐝 HONORARY
SHREWD
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Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/15/2025 5:37 PM
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Imagine someone wanting people to be hurt, and hurt badly

Just the way I feel about people who want to hurt gay people or brown people or who want to deny rights to any group because of prejudice. I’m especially angry about how ICE is treating immigrants, not that more control isn’t necessary, but I wonder abut the cruelty that is exhibited with such glee. Is it really necessary to tear families apart, put children in cages, hold people incommunicado for days, sometimes weeks?
\
There is an equal and opposite TDS: Trump Devotion Syndrome, where nothing he does is wrong. Not accepting a $400 million airplane from a founder of Hamas, not putting up a Trump hotel in a variety of compromised countries, not putting a lunatic in charge of public health. Not a peep. I am quite sure that if a Democrat, any Democrat was doing this - even Democrats would be aghast.

Meanwhile Trump is teaching the world about “The Art of the Deal”

I’m not sure destroying the trust of allies built up over decades for a tariff policy that’s already being rolled back piece by piece, but hey, that’s just me. (For instance, if I was trying to get China to change, I would try to get a coalition of nations on my side, rather than setting the whole world against me by attacking them too.
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Author: BreckHutHigh   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/15/2025 8:56 PM
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"Imagine someone wanting people to be hurt, and hurt badly .."

At least two lunatics with TDS (that the public is aware) have already tried to assassinate our current President. People have been threatening to take Elon Musk's life. Vandalizing Teslas. Fire bombing Tesla dealerships. For deftly exposing the waste, fraud and corruption that we all knew suspected were hidden inside our government?

Today James Comey (former FBI director) posts an image on social media insinuating someone should assassinate Trump:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/politics/james-come...

Then takes it down after he gets a visit from the Secret Service. My mistake he says. And yet the damage is done. No doubt, some unhinged loser will se this and take up Comey on his suggestion.

What kind of people are these? Is this how a civilized society resolves its political difference? Inciting violence towards the political opposition?

Are the members of this board aligned with this kind of violence and hate? Reading some of the posts here over the last several months I can only conclude yes.

Saddens me.






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Author: sleepydragon   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/15/2025 9:44 PM
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I heard that James Comey, who used to the head of FBI, where he had a team specializing in targeting ultra rich people who avoid taxes, was hired by Ray Dalio at bridgewater, where he organized bridgewater’s finance affairs such that all Ray Dalio’s yearly compensation go into this LLC as ownership shares, and Ray get dividends from it, and many senior executives also get shares in this LLC through investing their deferred compensations - thus paying lower taxes.
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Author: Mark   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/15/2025 11:35 PM
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Just the way I feel about people who want to hurt gay people or brown people ...

Well the guy literally said - "I want the ordinary citizens of the USA to be hurt, and hurt badly". And gay people and people of color are also ordinary citizens.
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Author: Banksy 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 8:24 AM
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Just the way I feel about people who want to hurt gay people or brown people...

Yes, particularly children...
Firearms are currently the leading cause of death for children in the United States. This situation is unique to the United States.
Every attempt democrats have made to protect American children from gun violence has been blocked by republicans.
Republicans need to stop ignoring the carnage they are responsible for.

Also Child poverty is up sharply, because the republicans in Congress (plus Manchin and Sinema) refused to renew the expanded Child Tax Credit in President Biden's American Rescue Plan.

Lastly tariff are a regressive tax: they will disproportionately punish lower-income Americans, raising the cost of living for those least able to absorb it.

Apologies to the board for OT post.
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 8:51 AM
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Apologies to the board for OT post.

How about not taking a dump on the living room carpet and saying "Sorry!"
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Author: weatherman   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 9:33 AM
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unless you are also talking about this post, that's some highly selecting dump sniffing....

https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=544186940
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Author: Lambo   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 10:40 AM
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At least two lunatics with TDS (that the public is aware) have already tried to assassinate our current President

Only one may have had TDS. The rooftop shooter just wanted to shoot someone famous and make a splash - he tracked Biden too.

Today James Comey (former FBI director) posts an image on social media insinuating someone should assassinate Trump:

Then you'll be happy to know -

"Eighty-six is slang meaning "to throw out," "to get rid of," or "to refuse service to." It comes from 1930s soda-counter slang meaning that an item was sold out. There is varying anecdotal evidence about why the term eighty-six was used, but the most common theory is that it is rhyming slang for nix."

For most of my life the main use didn't have a meaning of killing anyone. It was slang for firing someone or relieving them from a position.
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 10:47 AM
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At least two lunatics with TDS (that the public is aware) have already tried to assassinate our current President
...
Only one may have had TDS. The rooftop shooter just wanted to shoot someone famous and make a splash - he tracked Biden too.


I regret adding to the accursed thread, but it's worth appreciating the perplexing irony that he's a registered republican.

Jim
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Author: Said   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 10:59 AM
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Your president is a great disruptor indeed --- disrupting this board.

But, as knighttof3 knows, long ago someone said the wise words: "Anicca" = Everything is impermanent.
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Author: Mark   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 11:20 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
For most of my life the main use didn't have a meaning of killing anyone. It was slang for firing someone or relieving them from a position.

In the world of food service, it means "out of stock".

In the world of filmmaking, it means "kill the project".

In the world of crime, it means "killing the person".

Which world did this guy come from?
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: How far will it fall?
Date: 05/16/2025 12:00 PM
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Which world did this guy come from?

Comey? The previous FBI Director? Sorry, I have no idea which world he came from.
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