No. of Recommendations: 0
Perhaps worth a punt if you are so inclined. Visibility on future earnings is the problem for this one. Could drop another 40-50%
No. of Recommendations: 8
Surely there is a bottom down there somewhere. I don't know where it is.
Have a look at a longer term chart...today's price is almost precisely where it was 5 years ago, which is almost precisely the moment before the GLP1 market exploded. It would appear that the market has concluded that they ultimately gained net nothing from the whole affair, despite book value per share being up by a factor of 3-4 from all the retained earnings. You'd think they'd be able to find *some* way to make a buck in future from all those additional assets, no?
I have no position, and no hope of knowing what they're really worth, but I share the thought that it might be cheap enough to cover a fair bit of uncertainty about the future. For whatever it's worth (not much) most analysts seem to think the next couple of years of revenue and profits will settle in only about 8% below the figures of the last couple of years. That won't do much for the share price, but would be a forward P/E of around 10-11, probably enough to keep one from going broke.
If I played this one, I'd probably do repeated at-the-money cash backed puts. That frequently turns into a pleasant annual return when a stock price is flattish/range bound but value supported.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 5
Some factors that might partly contribute to 'why the last few years earnings amounted to nothing':
1) GLP1 agonists prevent the development of diabetes. A large part of Novo's non-GLP1 business is making insulin - 50% of global supply.
2) Higher risk environment for pharma with Trump; e.g. forcing down prices (which happened to Novo), threatening tariffs.
3) Higher bond rates, bigger discount on future earnings perhaps.
4) Possibly Trump's friends front-running this announcement which just came out hours ago:
https://www.ft.com/content/25ecf952-2fca-4ac0-9f72..."Trump administration announces new tariffs on pharmaceuticals "
https://www.euractiv.com/news/trump-hits-eu-innova..." Trump hits EU innovative pharma with 15% tariffs
Branded drugs face duties for the first time, while generics remain exempt "
TRS
No. of Recommendations: 4
Iown a little purchased at arpund $40 toe dip.
I'll share my LLM discussion.
Why NVO stock is under pressure (2026)
1) Weak 2026 outlook (biggest driver)
The company shocked investors by forecasting sales & profit decline of ~5%–13% in 2026 �
Yahoo Finance +1
This is a major shift from years of strong growth → markets repriced the stock lower
👉 In simple terms: investors went from “high-growth story” → “possible downturn”
2) Intense competition (especially from Eli Lilly)
Rival drugs like Zepbound / tirzepatide are:
Seen as more effective in weight loss
Rapidly gaining market share �
Kavout
New launches (including oral pills) are heating up the fight �
Reuters
👉 The market now thinks Novo’s dominance in obesity drugs is no longer guaranteed
3) Falling drug prices (margin pressure)
US pricing pressure + government policies forcing lower prices �
Investing.com UK
Novo is even:
Offering discounted subscriptions
Planning price cuts to stay competitive �
Reuters +1
👉 Lower prices = lower profit per patient
4) Insurance & demand uncertainty
Many insurers are restricting coverage for weight-loss drugs �
Business Insider
That creates:
Demand volatility
Reliance on self-pay customers
👉 The growth story becomes less predictable
5) Patent expiries & copycat drugs
Semaglutide (key ingredient in Ozempic/Wegovy) facing:
Patent expiries in some markets
Cheaper alternatives / compounding �
Kavout
👉 More competition → pricing power weakens
6) Negative sentiment & downgrades
Analysts downgraded the stock due to:
trial setbacks
price wars
Seeking Alpha
No. of Recommendations: 1
none of this really explains why nvo has done so much worse than lilly in what is effectively an oligopoly.
(note ratio of actual differences relative to joint marketing spend is near infinite.)
in fact, novo is usually the first mover, most recent in mass market pill form.
No. of Recommendations: 0
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/founday..."FDA approves weight loss pill from Eli Lilly
Foundayo will be offered in six doses, with patients typically starting on the lowest dose and working their way up to reduce side effects. It can be taken at any time of day without meal restrictions — unlike the Wegovy pill, which must be taken on an empty stomach each morning.
Lilly also has another GLP-1 drug in development, called retatrutide, which has shown greater weight loss in trials than any other drug on the market."
No. of Recommendations: 15
none of this really explains why nvo has done so much worse than lilly in what is effectively an oligopoly.
(note ratio of actual differences relative to joint marketing spend is near infinite.)
in fact, novo is usually the first mover, most recent in mass market pill form.
The key difference is that Novo is indeed the first mover, but unfortunately for them that also means it is the first to have its patents expire, which is happening now with its glucagon-like peptide-1 agonist (GLP-1), semaglutide (brand names Ozempic, Rybelsus, Wegovy.)
Lilly has a better drug, tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound), which is a double agonist, acting on GLP-1, like semaglutide, but also on glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), and which is also much further from patent expiration.
And Lilly also has a triple agonist, retatrutide, which has activity as a GLP-1 and GIP agonist but also as a glucagon agonist (GCG), which works better than both Novo's semaglutide and Lilly's own tirzepatide, but which is not yet approved by the FDA (nor by any other regulatory body.)
As Novo's drug comes off patent protection in many countries, (although it still has a few more years in the USA), and with competitive pressure from tirzepatide, and soon from retatrutide too, it is natural that Novo's revenue and earnings have started to fall, as Lilly's rise. Novo is now just 10x last year's earnings, but this may make sense if earnings are going to fall back as they have started to do. How are they expected to halt the decline? It is true that they are part of a duopoly, but it would be much better to be the other half of the duopoly, not this one.
dtb
