Post #779 by sutton on the US Policy board

Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy ❤

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WSJ today has an interview with a fella named Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport:

"Petersen is explaining to anyone who will listen why hefty U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could be catastrophic for America’s small businesses.

“If they don’t change the tariffs, it’s going to be an extinction-level, asteroid-wiping-out-the-dinosaurs kind of event,” he told me. “Only these aren’t dinosaurs. These are dynamic, healthy businesses.”

He knows this because those businesses are his customers."

And:

"Petersen’s company handles everything from booking space on planes, trucks and enormous ocean carriers to managing all the tedious paperwork along the way.

It’s a sleek tech platform that gives Petersen a window into the entire global economy, providing a real-time look at the situation on the ground and on the water. He can track exactly how much it costs to ship any item anywhere— and how much more it costs because of tariffs. His company has visibility into about 1% of U.S. trade, he said, which is more than enough data for him to connect dots.

“We have a pretty good view of what’s happening,” he says.

And what’s happening isn’t pretty."

And:

" The more companies that Petersen spoke with, the more he felt that he needed to speak up for them.

“It was just very obvious they felt really helpless and that nobody was explaining their point of view,” he said. “Nobody had their back.”"

Nothing particularly revelatory to anyone who's been paying attention, but a useful perspective of someone who is in a postion to see further and with better data than the rest of us. (Spoiler alert: he thinks Orange will ultimately back down)

Ungated, I think: https://www.wsj.com/business/tariffs-china-ryan-pe...

--sutton

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both ryan and the market seem to be voting that trump loses interest in 1-on-1 bribes for tariff relief.

what is puzzling, is that the mkt is supposedly a mysteriously balanced weighing machine.
95% of the soft indicators are negative, and a few have started to turn into hard data.
a few integrated indicators have near-record confidence levels that a modest-severe downturn will not be fixable for 9+ months regardless of what trump may tweet on tariffs or consumer prices.

none of this takes into account that the gop has no viable positive longterm economic strategy that they could execute.
(reshoring before mid-terms!)

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no viable positive longterm economic strategy that they could execute.

The fact they keep EXECUTING "it" (whatever "it" is/isn't) doesn't help.

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