No. of Recommendations: 10
<< Management fees (thus distributable earnings) have been growing faster than Brookfield conjectured seven years ago, at close to 20% a year but I also need to check to what extent that growth required capital investment from the larger BAM (in other word to what extend of that growth would really be on a per share basis if BAM was formerly separated).>>
To expand this, 5% dividend yield assumes either no real growth or at least some small lack of safety for durability of earnings. The rational quotation (and thus rational dividend yield, let us say) for BAM is a function of both safety of earnings sustainability, and the central expectation of (distributable, per share) earnings growth.
The latter (growth) we haven't seen in the context of BAM separated financially, as earlier it *could* potentially have been the case that when the fee business was part of the parent, capital from other corporate sources (rental income etc) was reinvested in large amounts to help realise the growth in manpower needed to raise so many flagship funds. No one has brought this up and hard to research but I'll look into it. I want to have a good grasp of how to expect BAM will grow distributable earnings on a per share basis without external investment from BN (earlier possibly less visible, but IF this was the former case and IF also continuing economically on the same course, then it would create share dilution for BAM). Two ifs, but possibly useful questions anyway.
(Investors may at times err in seeing some segment of a firm growing and think it is organic growth, when it is just capital investment. For example many 'cloud businesses' inside larger firms such as Google or Alibaba if put on the open market would be worth less than investors imagine, because they are growing from having huge capital dumped upon them, rather than organically growing. If separated out the cloud firms would be a disfunctional business with massive monthly share dilution, not visible when part of the parent. Amazon was particularly successful in cloud but it had the effect of massive investment from the books earlier on, plus share dilution of the parent over a couple of decades - the cloud segment would not have been possible as a stand alone non-diluted firm).
- Manlobbi
