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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: albaby1 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 75959 
Subject: Re: Vance Failed. No Deal.
Date: 04/13/26 7:45 AM
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So? Only this way the sanctions stay in place. By the way, had Trump kept it the deal would already be largely over. Iran would be fully freed from sanctions right now.

And they would not have 60% enriched uranium. They wouldn't be - or have been - two weeks away from breakout. They would be a year from breakout. Plenty of time to re-impose sanctions if they then restarted their program.

Would I be willing to trade relief from nuclear program sanctions in exchange for an Iran that was complying with what we wanted them to do? Of course. That's the point of sanctions - you want them to change the behavior they're being sanctioned for, and the incentive for making that change is relief from the sanctions. If they stop working to build a nuclear weapon, then you stop sanctioning them. So of course we all want a world in which they have stopped enriching uranium past energy levels in exchange for not longer being subject to nuclear sanctions. Don't you?

BTW. You keep making the mistake of forgetting that all players in the game get a vote on the outcome. Do you honestly think the rest of the Gulf States are going to stand for Iran closing the strait whenever it wants? Why wouldn't they be talking to any and everyone about building pipelines to avoid it altogether?

I'm sure they are. A prospect that will take years to implement and still be supremely vulnerable to missile and drone attacks (hard to protect a fixed structure like a pipeline running through the desert away from all the anti-missile defenses. And probably only an option for Saudi (which already has such a pipeline), since most of the other Gulf States are tiny and don't have enough territory to run a pipeline to anywhere strategically different (where does Kuwait or Dubia or Oman build their pipeline to)?
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