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Well, the manipulation / shenanigans of the last 6 market days flipped most of my signals to bearish. The increasing velocity of changes in the last month is giving me pause. As in, there was no indication that the market owners were about to crash-end the Yen carry trade (what?) and throw the levers over to buy Treasuries although "top warnings" were in place for a few weeks.

Now, with a nearly fully red board, in these fast herd-driven markets I'm not at all sure whether a -11 switch in 1 week is an all in short term contrarian buy because the panic will be over in a month, or whether it's a solid short because it's going to keep drifting down for awhile. It's all FOMO. I'm only 30% in stocks left anyway, pulled more out of large cap growth this week temporarily, so I'm playing defense... the time to go leveraged short was 3 weeks ago as new highs were hit with weak breadth... again... in hindsight. It's time to be safe, without bottom signals firing - right? Who knows!

Intermediate-Term		       BEARS/TOP BULLS/BOTTOM	AS OF
				
BearCatcher	Nasdaq NH/NL	       Bear		5/30/24
BearCatcher	SMA Slope, S&P 500		Bull	11/10/23
BearCatcher	Dying Bullish Euphoria		Bull	12/14/23
BC Summary	The Key	1	2	
Momentum, Int	26W / 52W		        Bull	11/10/23
Momentum, Int	# 26 week highs			        7/26/24
Momentum, Int	DMI	                Bear		8/9/24
Momentum, Int   10/50 Crossover	        Bear		8/2/24
Momentum, Int	PPO Weekly	        Bear		7/19
Breadth, mt	PAMA Naz 50	        Bear		8/2
Breadth, mt	Breadth Confirms	Bear		8/1
Breadth, mt	Naz Bullish %	        Bear		8/2
Breadth, mt	S&P PAMA 200	        Bear		7/11/24
Breadth Thrust	Breadth Thrust		Watch	
Correction Mode	>7% off last peak	Bear		8/2/24
Timing, Seasonal  MACD on RUT	        Bear		4/26/24
Interest Rates	Corporate Bond Index		Bull	7/12/24		
				
Short Term	Top Warning	5		
Momentum, ST	PPO Daily	        Bear		7/19/24
Breadth, st	SP600 PAMA20	        Bear		7/12
Breadth, st	PAMA5D %OFF 21dh	Bear		8/9/24
Top, st 	PAMA Divergence Highs	Bear		6/5/24
Top	PAA Count			                7/19/24
Top, breadth, ST Trigger Security	Bear		7/10/24
Top Recent Simple Top			                7/9/24
Top Primary-Tech Divergence			
Bottom	Extreme PAMA low		Off	        8/6/24
				
Leverage, Macro	Margin Debt to GDP			9/1/22			
Sjuggerud		                        Bull	3/24  

Counterpoint:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6360151193112
"Bull market will continue once the 'correction' is over: Ken Fisher"
"This is a bull market, it will continue once this correction is over. When that correction is over is impossible to tell."


https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6360111681112
Discusses that true bear markets tend to roll over slowly...until the steep drop in the last 1/3rd.
Quick sharp drops almost always recover soon, and the continue to go up.
Shows a table of # of S&P500 declines of various amounts.
5% once a year
10% once every 3 years
20% once every 8 years

Early in my career, my Dad told me that the worst mistake he had made in investing was to panic on Black Monday and sold everything, and advised me to never do that.

Good, Ray - was hoping someone would take the opportunity.

FC

Early in my career, my Dad told me that the worst mistake he had made in investing was to panic on Black Monday and sold everything, and advised me to never do that.


I would agree on that except post retirement things can be different. Some people are lucky enough with pensions and social security that investments are mostly "extra" money so letting it ride is an easier decision. If you rely on the investments to live then it is more understandable to be more conservative. Although you should be thinking of selling during big runs to reduce exposure to stocks.

Advice can be very scenario specific.

As it turns out... those red signals flipped from "wicked bearish"(*) back to an overall "neutral" consensus state in 1 week. Numerically speaking, it's the fastest & biggest whipsaw in the signals I track going back over 5 years. Along with the VIX dropping 61% since that high point in 5+ days and the S&P recovering over 8%.

Congrats to those with the conviction to call bs on the "panic" and make some substantial short term money.

* yeah I live in the Northeast.

FC

* yeah I live in the Northeast.

So this is a thing?

https://www.questionablecontent.net/view.php?comic...

Jim

Oh yah, fah shooah - closah ya get to Bwastin
(Translation: oh yes, for sure, the closer you get to Boston)

;-)

Oh yah, fah shooah - closah ya get to Bwastin

You misspelled "to". s.b. closah ya get ta Bwastin

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