No. of Recommendations: 1
X-Post from BRK.A Board:
It's no news to any who can fog a mirror that Israel has attacked Iran and Iran has retaliated. Let's ignore the reason for the conflict, but rather to consider the potential results.
Israel's prime minister (Netanyahu) says Israel will strike 'every target of the ayatollah regime' in Iran. Presumably, this means oil assets as well as military. At the same time the EU/G7 is considering lowering the maximum price to be paid for Russian oil. These two actions would present opposite forces on the price of oil.
The conflict was further complicated by the US (and possibly others) assisting Israel in shooting down Iranian missiles and Iran stating that the vessels of nations assisting Israel in the conflict would be legitimate targets in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
Another factor which this presents on the world stage is that Israel's military resources, while large, are not infinite and from a financial standpoint, the country has been at war for nearly two years - with a large portion of its population pulled from their jobs and put into uniform. During the past year and a half, for reasons good, bad or ugly, Israel has successfully engaged in brutal conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank and Yaman - and has now added Iran to the list.
Without going into the bowels of Israeli politics (which are byzantine), while most of the population tends to be "right wing", that does not mean that they necessarily support all of the government's actions - and the war's constantly pulling up of reservists has strained the existing political coalition nearly to the breaking point - and, as in other countries, their politicians will bend every rule in order to stay in power.
In the meantime, sectors which may immediately feel the heat include oil, shipping, gold/silver/platinum, and so on. While the US dollar may not rise, it will be interesting to watch US bond activity.
Jeff
