Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 2
More than 10 countries have signed on to Trump's "Board of Peace," sources say
Washington — More than 10 countries have signed on to join President Trump's "Board of Peace" for Gaza, sources familiar with the discussions told CBS News, though only five — United Arab Emirates, Belarus, Morocco, Hungary and Canada — have publicly accepted his invitation to join.
As the president envisions it, the group would comprise world leaders, with him as its chairman. Countries can contribute $1 billion to become permanent members, rather than holding a typical three-year membership, the White House said, although Canada has said it won't pay to join.https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/articles/more...Carney doesn't seem to grasp what this is about. The entire thing is a cover for laundering bribes to God on Earth Trump. If you are "invited" to pay a bribe, and you don't, you suffer consequences.
What will Trump the Perfect launch as his next multi-Billion dollar extortion racket?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
carney gets it. he is basically non-committal on indirect trump bribes, and not wasting time on direct ones.
severe delusion for anyone that thinks someone of carney's intellect and economic experience can get played by trump.
https://globalnews.ca/news/11620877/carney-davos-w...
No. of Recommendations: 0
severe delusion for anyone that thinks someone of carney's intellect and economic experience can get played by trump.
I'm not suggesting Carney could be conned by God on Earth Trump. I'm suggesting he doesn't quite grasp the consequences of not paying the bribe to Trump.
from the net sifter.
Canada's pipeline capacity to the coasts has significantly increased, primarily due to the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project, which boosted its capacity from 300,000 b/d to 890,000 b/d for Pacific export, allowing diversification to Asian markets beyond the U.S., alongside existing major lines like Enbridge and Keystone, improving overall egress and reducing price discounts for Western Canadian oil. Total export capacity is now around 4.8-5.0 million b/d, with TMX reaching near full utilization, ensuring better access to global markets.
Key Pipelines & Capacity:
Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX): The most significant recent addition, moving oil from Alberta to the Pacific Coast, adding 590,000 b/d, for a total of 890,000 b/d, opening routes to Asia.
Enbridge Mainline: A major artery, with significant capacity (e.g., Line 14 at 2.89 million b/d) feeding eastern and U.S. markets.
Keystone Pipeline: Moves oil from Alberta to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, with a capacity around 591,000 b/d.
Express Pipeline: Transports oil to the U.S. Rockies, with expanded capacity around 310,000 b/d.
Impact of Increased Capacity:
Market Diversification: TMX provides access to Indo-Pacific markets, reducing reliance on the U.S..
Price Improvement: Increased egress capacity helps narrow the price discount (WCS to WTI) for Canadian crude.
Utilization: The TMX pipeline was quickly approaching high utilization rates (over 80%) after starting in mid-2024, showing strong demand
With the Pirate King controlling access to Venezuelan heavy sour, he could cut off imports from Canada, leaving most of Canada's oil landlocked, with a considerable hit to the Canadian economy, and blame the "retribution" on Carney, for refusing to pay the bribe.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 14
I'm suggesting he doesn't quite grasp the consequences of not paying the bribe to Trump.
I wonder if it's the opposite. I wonder if he, and others, are beginning to grasp that there are no consequences to not paying the bribe to Trump.
There are consequences, to be sure. But those consequences can't be avoided by paying the bribe. If Trump can damage Canada by increasing imports of Venezuelan oil, he's going to do it at some point, whether Carney pays the billion here or not. If Carney pays today, there will be another ask tomorrow - and another, and another.
I think that's what the EU is starting to learn with the tariffs, based on von der Leyen's comments about having to stand behind your handshakes. If giving Trump what he wants in a trade deal won't stop him from doing whatever he wants the next time he has a demand, then there's no point in giving him what he wants in the trade deal.
IOW, there are no benefits to bribing someone who won't stay bribed. There's no benefit to acceding to the demands of a protection racket if they're going to beat you up anyway. So there's no consequences to not giving in, because the consequences will happen whether you give in or not.
No. of Recommendations: 0
cut off imports from Canada, leaving most of Canada's oil landlocked
Not even close. The northern US relies on Canadian oil. Refineries specifically built to handle it.
So Spankee will get is head cut off if he even considers it. The US breadbasket is dependent on that oil. No oil = no soybeans, wheat, corn, hogs, cattle, sunflowers, turkeys, chickens, and lots more. Food prices SOAR and Spankee gets publicly spanked. Farmer bankruptcies, processing plants shut down, etc. Major reduction in fresh meats to the entire US economy.
Imagine Thanksgiving with no turkeys, no Christmas hams, and so on. No BACON.
Political suicide.
So, ain't gonna happen.
No. of Recommendations: 2
If Carney pays today, there will be another ask tomorrow - and another, and another.
Yes, that has been my experience with "JCs" of Trump's ilk. Ask me to cut my throat for their benefit today, for promised benefits for me tomorrow. When tomorrow comes, no benefits, just excuses, and another ask.
IOW, there are no benefits to bribing someone who won't stay bribed. There's no benefit to acceding to the demands of a protection racket if they're going to beat you up anyway.
So, basically, Canada is Rogered, as it will take years to build more pipelines.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
no, it doesnt mean canada will receive asymmetric punishment.
it just means they may get nothing anyway, which may be the only truth trump has ever grasped.
even musk will (retrospectively) tell fanboyz that while the bribe can be massive AND permanent, the payoff need not arrive if frequency deemed insufficient.
(which does not imply musk has given up. as the pair are like-minded in such matters, everything especially insincerity, is always on the table.)
No. of Recommendations: 7
So, basically, Canada is Rogered, as it will take years to build more pipelines.
I mean, only a little. Canada exports about 4.2 million barrels per day to the U.S. Venezuela only has about 0.6-0.7 mbpd of production that could possibly go to the U.S. Canada's got about 0.4 mbpd of unallocated capacity in their new pipeline, which was expected to be absorbed over the next few years - some of that absorption might get drawn forward, though there might be some issues with the blends. So the delta is only 0.2-0.3 mbpd that might have some issues for a few years.
Yes, it takes years to build more pipelines. But it will take more years for Venezuela's oil production to expand from current levels.
Plus, there's the other escape valve - Canada could still just pipe to the Gulf, and then export their oil from there as crude rather than being refined. It would be a little wasteful to have Venezuela ship their oil north to the Gulf, while Canada ships their oil south from the Gulf on to China, rather than just having Venezuela ship to China, but that's what would probably happen as the fungible oil sloshes around the distribution system.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Not even close. The northern US relies on Canadian oil. Refineries specifically built to handle it.From the net sifter, Venezuelan vs Canadian crude API gravity and sulfur content.
Venezuelan and Canadian crudes are both typically heavy and sour, meaning low API gravity (around 9-15°API) and high sulfur (2-5%+), but Canadian oil sands bitumen is generally thicker/more viscous, while Venezuelan crudes, though heavy, can be somewhat more mobile due to factors like warmer reservoir temperatures. Both require specialized, complex refineries to process their high sulfur and density, making them challenging but valuable heavy crudes for markets like the U.S. Gulf Coast
Venezuelan Crude (Orinoco Belt):
API Gravity: Very low, often 9.5–12°API (heavy to extra-heavy).
Sulfur Content: High, typically 4%–5% (sour).
Characteristics: Very viscous, requires dilution for pipeline transport, similar to bitumen but often slightly less viscous than some Canadian counterparts.
Canadian Crude (Oil Sands Bitumen):
API Gravity: Also low, similar to Venezuelan (around 10-15°API range for heavy types).
Sulfur Content: High, varying but generally high (e.g., 7.38% in some samples).
Characteristics: Extremely viscous (near solid at room temp), requiring significant upgrading or diluents; generally more viscous than Faja (Venezuela) crude.
Key Comparison Points:
Type: Both are classified as heavy, sour crudes, making them challenging to refine.
Density/Gravity: Both have low API gravity, indicating high density.
Viscosity: Canadian bitumen is often thicker/more solid than Venezuelan heavy oil, which can flow more easily.
Refining: Both need specialized refineries (with coking units) due to sulfur and heaviness, though Venezuelan oil is closer to U.S. refiners.-------------------------------------------------------------
So Venezuelan crude is a touch heavier, but less viscous, and sweeter. The bottom line, substituteability , per the net sifter:
Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crude oils are substituteable, primarily competing for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries built for heavy grades, but significant differences in infrastructure, pricing, and geopolitical stability mean substitution isn't instant or complete; Canadian oil benefits from stable supply to the Midwest, while Venezuela faces recovery challenges, making them more complementary competitors than perfect replacements in the short term, though Venezuelan oil can cap Canadian producer margins.
Key Differences & Competition Points
Crude Type: Both are heavy crudes, making them suitable for similar U.S. refineries, especially on the Gulf Coast.
U.S. Market: Canadian oil has a strong, established route to the U.S. Midwest via pipelines, while Venezuelan oil historically targeted the Gulf Coast, creating direct competition for those refiners.
Infrastructure & Risk: Canada offers low geological and political risk, while Venezuela requires massive investment and faces political instability, making Canadian oil more reliable for consistent supply.
Price Sensitivity: Competition boils down to price; if Venezuelan oil is cheaper after factoring in shipping and risks, it can pressure Canadian crude prices, impacting Alberta's economy.
Substitution Factors
Short-Term: Limited. Venezuela needs years and huge investment to restore full production, meaning Canada remains the primary heavy crude supplier for now, say Reuters and BNN Bloomberg.
Long-Term: Possible, but depends heavily on economics and investment.
Market Dynamics: More Venezuelan oil could cap Canadian producer margins rather than displace all volumes, especially if it's discounted to attract buyers, suggest Reddit users and Energy Intelligence.
Impact on Canada
A rise in Venezuelan output increases competition, potentially lowering prices for Canadian crude, affecting revenues for producers and Alberta's economy, say BNN Bloomberg and The Globe and Mail.
It highlights Canada's need to diversify export markets beyond the U.S., notes University of Chicago professor Ryan Kellogg, per Marketplace-----------------------------------------------------------------
I'm pretty sure this was discussed, in mid 2024, when the Pirate King was demanding a $1B bribe from the oil industry.
Chevron has said it could ramp up it's output significantly, relatively quickly.
Chevron sees pathway to grow Venezuela production by 50%, US energy secretary says
WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that Chevron saw a pathway to grow its Venezuela production by 50%, with his comments coming after a meeting that President Donald Trump had with oil companies on the South American nation.
Chevron "said with the actions that were taken and some additional things we can do for them, .. which is just permissions, approvals," Wright said. He added that the company sees "a pathway to grow their production by 50% in the next 18-24 months."https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-se...The plan for the rest of Venezuelan production is US gets first dibs. That puts Trump the Perfect within striking range of replacing nearly all Canadian imports.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
Plus, there's the other escape valve - Canada could still just pipe to the Gulf,
Unless a certain vindictive SOB decides to cut off the pipelines at the 49th parallel.
What USian producers would prefer would be a hugely government subsidized program to reconfigure mid-west refineries to process USian crude, rather than Canadian.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
From the net sifter, Venezuelan vs Canadian crude API gravity and sulfur content.
The crude does not just appear overnight at the northern refineries. So, need more pipelines going from Gulf Coast to multiple northern refineries. Years to be built. So, gonna ship crude by railcar or truck to those refineries?
Otherwise, cut exports and divert finished products to all across northern US.
Let us know when it gets EXPENSIVE. You ain't seen nothing yet....
Then wait until it gets COLD. You know -20F and colder, plus windchill. -40F and colder.
I can wait. Spankee can't do anything except kill his followers in large numbers.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I can wait. Spankee can't do anything except kill his followers in large numbers.
As suggested before, to "JCs", like God on Earth Trump, we Proles are expendable meat. No losses in Iran. No losses in Venezuela. Some day, our guy's luck will run out, and they'll start coming home, from one of his wars for personal profit, in boxes. Remember how sensitive #43 was about that, banning the media from the Air Force base where the boxes came back from Iraq?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 1
This is fascinating.
I thought the far Left hated fossil fuels and was in favor of anything that would lessen the use of them.
Now, Trump is being criticized for taking actions which may interfere with the free use of fossil fuels.
He should be applauded by the Left for his actions.
No. of Recommendations: 6
I thought the far Left hated fossil fuels and was in favor of anything that would lessen the use of them.
You thought your make believe world created by the right wing propaganda machine was the real world, and all the straw men who inhabit that world real.
Every now and then, you discover that real human beings with real and varying opinions do not fit in your make believe world……
So you blame them for not playing the role that you assign them.
No. of Recommendations: 0
taking actions which may interfere with the free use of fossil fuels.
No surprise. Spankee does NOT want to be boiled in oil....
