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Author: hclasvegas   😊 😞
Number: of 48490 
Subject: Trump vs Harris now a dead heat,
Date: 08/05/2024 8:09 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 1
" Harris now leads Trump with 45.5% of the expected vote, compared to Trump’s 44.1%.

According to Silver’s calculations, Harris now has 50.5% chance to win the general election, compared to Trump’s 48.8%. Harris also now has a 65.9% chance to win the popular vote—but the predicted elector share remains close, with the vice president only beating Trump by about 18 votes in the Electoral College.

The same model had independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at about 5% in the general election."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nate-silve...
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Author: sano ✶🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 48490 
Subject: Re: Trump vs Harris now a dead heat,
Date: 08/05/2024 12:00 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
The same model had independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at about 5% in the general election.

Did worms eat RFK Jr.'s brain before or after he became a consumer of road kill?

RFK Jr.:"“So I pulled over and I picked up the bear and put him in the back of my van, because I was gonna skin the bear. It was in very good condition and I was gonna put the meat in my refrigerator.”

That he's polling at 5% strongly suggests that it may be contagious.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/05/nx-s1-5063939/rfk-j...

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Author: ptheland ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 48490 
Subject: Re: Trump vs Harris now a dead heat,
Date: 08/05/2024 4:51 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 7
That he's polling at 5% strongly suggests that it may be contagious.

My guess is that is the never-Trump Republican place of refuge. If you won’t vote for the convict and can’t bring yourself to vote for a democrat, but still want to vote, that pretty much leaves you with worm-brain.

—Peter
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Author: albaby1 ✶🐝 HONORARY
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 48490 
Subject: Re: Trump vs Harris now a dead heat,
Date: 08/05/2024 7:01 PM
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Not just Silver's model any more.

Today, for the first time, Harris now has a slight lead in the RCP polling average in the head-to-head matchup. It's the first time Trump's trailed in the RCP polling average since September 2023:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/g...
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Author: hclasvegas   😊 😞
Number: of 48490 
Subject: Re: Trump vs Harris now a dead heat,
Date: 08/06/2024 6:13 AM
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“ Not just Silver's model any more.“ Plus, one betting site has trump a very small favorite one has Harris a small favorite. It’s extremely likely Lichtman is going to predict Harris as well. Trump found a way to blow the lay up on a 6 foot hoop as only he can. ☮️
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