Post #4953 by lizgdal on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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The three bear catchers have been in BULL mode from January 5th to the present. The hiccup in the markets did not impact any of the three.

Date      Signal  SMA   NH/NL  DBE
20260105  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20251226  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20251128  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20251031  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250813  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250801  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250626  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250617  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250604  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250508  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250409  4       Bear  Bear   Bull
20250207  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250205  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250131  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250130  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250129  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250124  7       Bull  Bull   Bull
20250108  5       Bull  Bear   Bull
20250103  7       Bull  Bull   Bull

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The three bear catchers have been in BULL mode from January 5th to the present. The hiccup in the markets did not impact any of the three.

The recent hiccup in the market was just Mr. Market shaking out the weak hands.

It wasn't fun. It is never fun.
But if the market was always a smooth and steady up, it would deliver CD-type returns.
I always have to remember to tell myself that when my brokerage account reports losing $20,000+ in one day.

Dow 50,000. Wow.

I recall reading the 1999 book "Dow 36,000" when it came out.

The Dow hit that 22 years later, in late 2021.

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Stockcharts (using a long-ago "agreed" on - legacy? - version) has it as barely bearish due to this week's shenanigans - https://schrts.co/rgiyWmBA. No doubt due to SC's data variance with GTR1.

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barchart 52-Week Hi-Lo Nasdaq ($MADQ) was negative starting January 26th. The 9-day weighted average went negative on January 30th. (There are about 2200 Nasdaq stocks, and so the -0.4% BCC trigger is about 10 stocks.) gtr1 [NHNLDiff] might differ from barchart $MADQ.

  Date     $MADQ  wma9d   pct2200
2/6/2026     28   -86.3     -3.92
2/5/2026   -249   -107.7    -4.89
2/4/2026    -80   -67.6     -3.07
2/3/2026   -100   -54.8     -2.49
2/2/2026    -48   -34.2     -1.55
1/30/2026  -100   -23.6     -1.07
1/29/2026  -101     0.7     0.03
1/28/2026   -12    29.5     1.34
1/27/2026   -15    41.4     1.88
1/26/2026    -7    55.3     2.51
1/23/2026    28    69.1     3.14
1/22/2026   210    77.0     3.50
1/21/2026    72    45.6     2.07
1/20/2026   -32    41.2     1.87
1/16/2026    50    60.2     2.74
1/15/2026    95    62.8     2.86
1/14/2026    27    53.7     2.44
1/13/2026    45
1/12/2026    64
1/9/2026     76
1/8/2026     81
1/7/2026     46
1/6/2026     83
1/5/2026     49
1/2/2026    -26

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$...(9)&sym=$MADQ&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

=== link for the -0.4% cutoff ===
Author: rgearyiii
Subject: Bear Catcher II Bug Fix
Date: 3/27/2016
"I`ve also applied the optimized cut-off of -0.4% for BCII (NHNLDiff)."
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=32177298

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Fix the parenthesis in the broken link:

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$...

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